Nate McGuire
Nov 14, 2020
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 10 of the Sunday main slate.
Listen, it may be ugly but there will be volume. Last week, Duke Johnson got 20 touches (16 carries and 4 receptions), and now he is playing a Cleveland Defense that has allowed the 23rd most points to opposing running backs. Cleveland is also allowing a lot of receptions to backs in the early going. I would look for Johnson to be a value pick up this week. Oh and it is still a revenge game past due.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
This is a “prove it“ week for James Connor. He has fallen short of salary expectations for the last three weeks and scored 4 points last week. There is a chance that he excels this week against Cincinnati, but that’s what was expected in the matchup last week where he fell short of success. With Connor’s recent game history and low probability of success he should be avoided. It’s hard to see him scoring 21 points. If he has an exceptional game, I’ll take that loss.
@FF_Spotlight
Sanders is now back and healthy coming off the bye week for Philadelphia. When Sanders has played this year he has been solid despite not getting high usage. This week Philadelphia is going against the Giants, which should result in a positive script for Sanders. The Giants also rank 24th against RBs this year on DraftKings and have given up top 24 RB performances in 8 games this season. As long as Sanders is actually healthy and goes the whole game, I expect a 20 plus point performance.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
There are a lot of QB options this week. I mean sheesh you want to tell me Alex Smith at $5,200 is a bad play? My gut is telling me that someone with a decent usage percentage may sit right under our nose. Josh Allen may be playing in the highest scoring matchup of the week. The Cardinals allow yards in bunches and rank bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs. I am booking Allen for a Rushing TD and 300 yards passing.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Fournette has been scoring double digit fantasy points the last three weeks and outperforming Ronald Jones. The Carolina defense has been susceptible to the run this year and have let up over 100 yards on the ground in 7 of 9 weeks. One of the early season takeaways that we had in this column was start running backs against Carolina. Even in last week’s beating from New Orleans, Fournette still scored 10 points. He is receiving a lot of work through the air, making receptions and getting yards, raising his floor for this match up. Grab your beards and get ready to go!
@FF_Spotlight
Since O'Brien got fired, Brandin Cooks opportunities have skyrocketed. He has averaged 9.75 targets in those four weeks since and averaged 21.3 points per game on DraftKings. In this week's matchup, Houston gets Cleveland, who ranks 27th against WRs so far this year on DraftKings. Cooks is priced at the WR24 spot but I expect him to have a top 12 performance for WRs this week, making his price highly valuable.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
I have been burned many times relying on Engram for fantasy production. However, he is working a formula that spells success. The Giants just lost another starting RB for the season. He is playing the 32nd ranked defense to opposing TEs. I believe the game will be a sneaky high scoring game. He has had 29 targets over his last three games. As much as it pains me, I am banking on Engram this week.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
New Orleans has averaged a take away a game with 7 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries this year. They have 22 sacks as well and logged five sacks two weeks ago against Chicago. Matching up against San Francisco this week provides some opportunity for turnovers. Nick Mullens has played in five games this year and only has one game without a turnover. He has two games with two turnovers and one game with three turnovers. They'll need to score 9 points to meet their salary.
@FF_Spotlight
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 10
Ben Roethelisberger ($6,200) - JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,100) - Chase Claypool ($5,800) - Dionte Johnson ($5,200): Big Ben was activated of the COVID IR early on Saturday morning and should provide for a good play on a low percent of people’s rosters. He has numerous passing options and the Bengals have been susceptible to the big play this year. Ben Stacking with any one of these options will be good and at least one of them will be great!
@FF_Spotlight
Jared Goff ($6,500) - Cooper Kupp ($6,900) - Robert Woods ($6,600): It's well known that Seattle's pass defense has been their Achilles heel this season. Well, the Rams have one of the best WR1-WR2 combos and expect them to thrive along with Jared Goff.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Baker Mayfield ($6,000)- Kareem Hunt ($6,700)- Donovan Peoples-Jones($3,700): WARNING: this stack is high-risk, high-reward. Cleveland is still looking to find their passing identity post-OBJ. I think there will be a low usage opportunity for some OBJ targets to go to DPJ
Nathan McGuire
DATA POINT - WEEK 9
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Through 8 games this year, QBs have scored 242.8 points against the Seattle defense, that's an average of 30.35 per game.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Russell Wilson has 20 career loses to in-division foes. 9 of which have some to the Rams. The only divisional opponent w=in which he is below .500
@FF_Spotlight
Steelers defense cost this week: $4,400. Devin Singletary's cost: $4,300. Who has a better shot of scoring 13.0 points?
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 10
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Allen, $7,000, 39.00 points
RB: Robinson, $7,000, 15.90 points
RB: Gibson, $5,800, 13.50 points
WR: Diggs, $7,400, 23.80 points
WR: Chark, $5,200, 30.60 points
WR: Marvin Jones, $5,100, 13.30 points
TE: Fant, $4,600, 7.50 points
FLEX: Dionte Johnson, $5,000, 14.10 points
DEF: Miami, $2,800, 8.00 points
Total: $49,000, 165.70 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Watson, $7,100, 24.24 points
RB: Cook, $8,200, 42.20 points
RB: Robinson, $7,000, 15.90 points
WR: Fuller, $6,800, 24.00 points
WR: Cooks, $5,500, 17.30 points
WR: John Brown, $4,600, 17.90 points
TE: Fells, $4,200, 4.60 points
FLEX: Preston Williams, $4,100, 16.00 points
DEF: Atlanta, $2,500, 3.00 points
Total: $50,000, 165.14 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Murray, $7,800, 41.92 points
RB: McCaffrey $8,500, 37.10 points
RB: Cook, $8,200, 42.20 points
WR: D. Moore, $5,600, 3.80 points
WR: M. Williams, $5,100, 13.10 points
WR: J. Brown, $4,600, 17.90 points
TE: Okwuegbunam, $2,800, 1.70 points
FLEX: D. Dallas, $5,000, 11.90 points
DEF: Minnesota, $2,400, 9.00 points
Total: $50,000, 178.62 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 9
Nathan McGuire: 159.04
Alex Edwards: 144.40
@FF_Spotlight: 127.00
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (6-2-1): 14 pts
Alex Edwards (3-4-2): 10 pts
@FF_Spotlight (0-3-6): 3 pts