Nate McGuire
Dec 26, 2020
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 16 of the Sunday main slate.
Alex Smith is set to return to the football field this week with a favorable match up Carolina this week. Terry McLaurin is out this Sunday which leaves WR1 responsibilities to Cam Sims. Cam saw 9 targets and posted a 5/92 day last time he has Alex Smith under center. I believe Jeremy Chinn, the Panthers stud rookie safety/corner/linebacker will be fixed primarily on stopping Antonio Gibson (Questionable) and Logan Thomas. I expect a lot of opportunities for Sims to out-play his price tag and rack up a lot of YAC.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Russell Wilson has shown a tremendous ceiling and low floor. He plays the Rams this week and had 12.9 points on DraftKings, his lowest score of the whole year. He is priced as this weeks 5th QB, giving him a small probability of exceeding compared to other similar quarterbacks and, more likely, a performance that will sink your DraftKings lineup.
@FF_Spotlight
Didn't think Bell would ever be a must-have in the year 2020 but here we are. Edwards-Helaire is out with a high ankle sprain, so Bell should be getting the bulk of the volume in the backfield. Also, going up against Atlanta, who is ranked 23rd against RBs on DraftKings. If Kansas City plays like they should and has a good lead in the second half, the game script should set up well for Bell to get a large volume of carries. This isn't just a must-have but also a value pick, with Bell being the 19th highest priced RB in the main slate. He should well outperform that price with a 20+ point performance.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
The Bears are making a late playoff push and it is being lead by their offense. Montgomery is running exceptionally well and Trubisky is limiting his turnovers. Now Trubisky has posted over 20 points in just two of his last 4 starts, but the offense has been averaging 33 points per game over this 3 game stretch. The defense will likely shutdown the mediocre Jacksonville offense, and allow for easy scoring opportunities. I do not anticipate Mitchell will be QB1, but he may be a great low usage play.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Jalen Hurts has reinvigorated the rushing attack for Philadelphia. With the additional rushing threat, and a real threat of the pass, there is more room for Miles Sanders to operate. He is facing the Dallas Cowboys who have been easy to rush on this year, but have tightened up a bit in recent weeks. Sanders has a good chance for two touchdown upside and long runs for touchdowns have been a thing for him this year.
@FF_Spotlight
Amari is coming off a rough week against San Francisco, with only 2.3 points on DraftKings but I look for him to bounce back this week against Philadelphia. Why do i look for him to bounce back? Well two main reasons, the first, Philadelphia struggles a bit against WRs, ranking 20th against them on DraftKings. The second reason, Cooper has had three games this year where he has scored under 5 points on DraftKings. In both previously, he bounced back with positive performances. I see him continuing that against Philadelphia.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Hooper appears to be the new number two target emerging in this dynamic Browns offense behind Landry. With that said, Baker is distributing the ball very well to several targets. With the Browns facing the Jets' 32nd ranked defense against opposing TEs, I like the matchup. Additionally, with Quinnen Williams out for the remainder of the season Chubb will get them to the redzone often.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Washington’s top notch defense takes on the Carolina Panthers. Washington has an interception in each of their last five weeks and have scored defensive touchdowns in two of the last four weeks. With questions on the offense about the health of Gibson, McLaurin, Smith and the decision making of Haskins (on and off field) the defense will need to deliver. They have banded together under Ron Rivera this year and exceeded expectations all year. Expect the same this week.
@FF_Spotlight
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 16
Trubisky ($5,700) - Robinson ($9,000)-Montgomery ($7,700): The Bears have sharpened their teeth and this stack has been profitable in the past two weeks. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.
@FF_Spotlight
Goff (5,900) - Henderson (4,500) - Kupp ($6,600) - Woods ($7,000): Seattle defense is on the struggle bus against the pass and Henderson should get a high volume of reps with Akers injured.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Mahomes($8,500)-Hill($9,000)-Bell($5,800): With CEH out, do not miss Bell who is still in his Jets jersey. I like his opportunities in this game.
Nathan McGuire
DATA POINT - WEEK 16
David Montgomery has 115.1 points in the last 4 games, that's more than he scored in his first 9 games of the season, where he had 111.4 points on DraftKings.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Santa's sleigh reportedly travels at 650 miles per second, slightly faster than Jonathan Taylor.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
James Robinson may start after not practicing the whole week. Ankle sprains rarely can be returned from in a week. Buyer beware.
@FF_Spotlight
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 15
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Jackson, $7,500, 30.22 points
RB: Swift, $6,400, 23.20 points
RB: Dobbins, $5,900, 15.10 points
WR: McLaurin, $6,600, 14.70 points
WR: Aiyuk, $6,300, 22.30 points
WR: Marvin Jones, $5,700, 30.20 points
TE: Kmet, $3,000, 3.20 points
FLEX: Corey Davis, $5,800, 24.00 points
DEF: Texans, $2,400, 1.00 points
Total: $49,600, 163.20 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Watson, $6,800, 27.42 points
RB: Swift, $6,400, 23.20 points
RB: Taylor, $7,200, 19.50 points
WR: Cooks, $6,000, 11.90 points
WR: Davis, $5,800, 24.00 points
WR: Hanson, $4,200, 13.50 points
TE: Kmet, $3,000, 3.20 points
FLEX Kamara, $7,400, 18.40 points
DEF: Chicago, $3,200, 5.00 points
Total: $50,000, 146.12 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Watson, $6,800, 27.42 points
RB: Robinson, $7,100, 14.30 points
RB: Montgomery, $7,000, 32.20 points
WR: Jones Jr. $5,700, 30.20 points
WR: Pittman Jr., $4,800, 3.90 points
WR: Mooney, $3,900, 16.50 points
TE: Everett, $3,100, 4.80 points
FLEX: Cook, $9,000, 29.90 points
DEF: Eagles, $2,500, 6.00 points
Total: $49,900, 165.22 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 15
Nathan McGuire: 133.62
Alex Edwards: 140.90
@FF_Spotlight: 115.32
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (9-5-1): 23 pts
Alex Edwards (4-5-6): 13 pts
@FF_Spotlight (2-5-8): 9 pts