Jahan Dotson Rookie Film Review

Format for the Rookie WR Review:

I was lower than the NFL on Jahan Dotson, who was surprisingly drafted 16th overall. Had him as a 2nd round pick (sub 80.0 Film Grade) and a complementary wide receiver. My primary hesitation with Dotson was a lack of Physicality. He was easily walled off during his routes, and I graded his Physicality/Hand Fighting as 1.5/5.0 - anything under 2.0 significantly affects the overall score, so Dotson was kept just beyond the 80.0 range.

I was also unimpressed by his after the catch ability. He was very easy to tackle, and I thought his creativity was overrated.

While I stand by my initial overall diagnosis regarding the type of player Dotson was - Brandon Lloyd comp, finesse player with A+ ball skills - his rookie film highlighted how not all players need Physicality to succeed.

While you can find a few examples of Jahan Dotson struggling to get off the press, he usually performed well in this category. Dotson is similar to Devonta Smith in this manner. He doesn't need to be a bully. He's intelligent enough and quick enough to avoid contact altogether. Watch how he works this Cover 2 CB. Sets up outside, then lightning flash inside and back out to re-stack. Excellent coverage recognition and ability to find his appropriate schematic fit for the play.

This kind of stuff happens occasionally, but it's really not a big deal. His coverage diagnosis skill is typically good and he frequently makes himself available.

Here Dotson ID's zone coverage and slides away from the underneath linebacker as he comes out of his curl. Most young receivers would turn and let the LB flow in front of them before recognizing the need to move. Dotson does it immediately, providing consistent availability for the quarterback. Truly mature awareness.

Dotson's footwork is classically efficient. He slams on the brakes with ease and he does not waste any steps at the top of his route. He wins the one-on-one here, generating enough separation on a curl to add yards after catch and earn the first down. The Titans could not ask Treylon Burks to do this with any reliability. They would have to put him in motion or run him across the formation. Dotson's route running ability gives Bieniemy so much schematic versatility.

Dotson's showed plenty of manipulative skill at Penn State. He had no problem translating his ability against the NFL caliber. In this play, the CB disguises zone pre-snap, then flips outside to play man. Dotson pushes further outside to sell a fade before ripping back inside on the dig route. Smooth operation and on-the-fly adjusting by the rookie.

On this corner TD, Dotson stems outside to square up his DB. This helps him pause the DB before working outside to the open space in the endzone.

The route is excellent, but the main takeaway is Dotson's decision making. There's no specific rule or clue indicating that Dotson should work outside to isolate this cornerback. He could have assumed that the Cowboys were playing head-up man and made the inside DB his target instead. Dotson is taking initiative here. He understands that the Cowboys want to Banjo this offensive look ("Banjo" is a term for DBs playing outside-inside match rather than locking on to a receiver). If Dotson worked to the inside DB first, the outside DB could have easily walled him off of the corner route and eliminated him from the play. By moving to attack the body of the outside DB, Dotson keeps his target area open. He prevents the defense from sealing the edge, and steals a touchdown instead.

Detractors will point to Dotson's massive, league-leading 0.115 TD per target rate (7 TDs on 61 targets) as a reason for hesitancy. While that's a legitimate argument, it needs to be stated that Dotson's high TD number was not a fluke. Jahan Dotson is the Commanders best redzone receiver. He's their most competent ball winner and he's a natural separator. He still has a good shot at hitting 9+ TDs in a season.

He just ices dudes in the redzone. Consistent. Available. Reliable.

Seriously, you have to love this guy. Look at the launch point of this throw. That's DeAndre Hopkins caliber trust right there. Literally, "Jahan is down there somewhere."

I noticed that these deep ball wins were more than just great tracking skill in the middle of last season. This play against the Niners was a galaxy brain set up. Dotson doesn't just find the ball, he manipulates his defenders away from it.

He won using this exact technique during the first game of the regular season too. It's so good, I don't even know how to express how excited I am. This is the perfect rep. A holy grail of teach tape. The salesmanship and change of direction violence on this out-and-up are phenomenal. But more than that, Dotson tricks the defender into slowing so that he can separate at the catch point. This is savant stuff. Antonio Brown caliber psycho. Absolutely love to see it.

And of course, Dotson's YAC ability was better than I expected.

He's not going to break a pure tackle, but his supreme positional awareness translates well to this portion of the game. He frequently varies his speed, knows when to explode and how to capitalize on defensive leverage.

Career Trajectory

Jahan Dotson has all the film qualities of a legit Top 30 NFL receiver. He answered any question surrounding size/physicality. It won't ever be a strength, but he offsets any concern with a combination of above average quickness & intelligence. This boosts his Release, Route, and YAC grades to push him well over the 80.0 range for WR2s.

Dotson's catch point creativity is a major defining highlight of his profile. It's not just "good for a rookie," it's top tier for any NFL player.

It's not rare to have a great talent receive limited volume. Dotson's fantasy productivity will likely be lighter than most players of his caliber. Treat him like Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR31): Great talent. Watch/wait for injuries to other options on the team. Start immediately if McLaurin or Samuel go down.

While Curtis Samuel presents as a much better fantasy value across all formats (redraft/bestball/dynasty) with an Underdog ADP of WR76?! Dotson should outperform his own WR40 ADP. It's easy for fantasy players to shy away from WRs on deep rosters with mysterious QB situations. Let Dotson's talent clear away the confusion. He's a worthy investment, and I expect everyone recognizes how special he is come 2024. QBs will want to play for the Commanders next year, the situation will improve quickly, whether that be through Sam Howell or a 2024 rookie.