In this article, I'll be exploring the fantasy scouting report of my top ranked player at each fantasy position, from prospects entering the 2020 NFL Draft. I'll be providing content on the 1.01 of each position, looking at how they've performed throughout their college career, how they will translate to the NFL and the dream fantasy landing spot to maximise their potential.
Based on my college prospect scouting model, the top ranked player at each fantasy position from the 2020 NFL Draft:
QB - Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
RB - Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)
WR - CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)
TE - Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri)
For each prospect, I will analyse the various factors in their game. From an analytical standpoint I’ll be reviewing athletic testing & college production via the data at Player Profiler. I’ll also have a dabble at my own film grinding sessions via the amazing Astronauts DraftBreakdown Room. I’ll provide you with an interesting take of ‘combo comparison’ - which gives the unique view of a prospect based on mixing the skills & styles of two other NFL players. I’ll then conclude with my dream landing spot for fantasy & dynasty value / range of outcomes for their career. Let’s go...
Athletic Testing
The evaluation of Tua’s athletic metrics is incomplete due to a hip dislocation suffered in November - which continues to cloud his draft stock. From watching tape, we can see that he is plenty agile in the pocket to extend plays & open up running lanes on improvisation. In terms of speed & rushing ability, he’s not outstanding - averaging just over 10 rushing yards per game at Alabama, however did have a solid 9 rushing TDs in 32 career games. I would consider Tua an average athlete at worst, however he does flash dual threat ability - which could be further highlighted in the NFL, with it improving in a more competitive arena.
College Production
College stud, from the initial impact as a freshman, mastering a comeback victory in the 2017 National Championship - Tua’s college production is outstanding. Career passing statistics of 87 TDs to just 11 INTs, a yearly increase in completion % & yards per attempt, he absolutely smashed. Tua produced 99th percentile College QBR & 97th percentile College YPA, on the back of above average Breakout Age at 57th percentile. Whilst he has only played in 32 games total and attempted 684 career passes - he has flashed over all of his three seasons in college & isn’t considered a one-year wonder, not mentioning any names...
Film Study
PROS: great footwork & elusiveness - can extend plays, poised in the pocket, toughness - willing to throw & take a hit simultaneously, laser arm, works well through progressions, eye manipulation to look off safeties, quick release, short memory - bounces back from mistakes, great ball placement on short & intermediate routes, excellent out of structure, great set up & base, nice touch passes when required, clutch - elevates performance in the key moments, extremely comfortable in the RPO game.
CONS: inconsistent deep accuracy, holds ball too long - needs to learn to throw away, takes too many hits as a runner, occasional poor throws into traffic, some batted passes at line of scrimmage.
Player Combo Comparison
A combination of Drew Brees & Russell Wilson - outstanding accuracy in the short to intermediate range, superb poise under pressure & great charisma / leadership qualities.
Dream Fantasy Spot
Tua’s dream landing spot for fantasy production is the Los Angeles Chargers. He would offer dual-threat ability & have some fantastic weapons to begin his career. In the backfield, he would have an outstanding receiver in Austin Ekeler - a threat to house it on any play. Also, the backfield has no clear goal line back currently, meaning a reliance on pass TDs could be likely. The Chargers have a stud TE in Hunter Henry, still only 25 - although with durability concerns. Also, there has been investment in the offensive line with the additions of all pro guard Trai Turner & solid offensive tackle Brian Bulaga. Lastly at WR, he would have a target vacuum in the middle of the field in the outstanding Keenan Allen, paired with the red zone & deep threat ability of Mike Williams. Tua would work under the guidance of coach Lynn & veteran dual-threat QB Tyrod Taylor - a great cast to maximise his upside.
Dynasty Value / Range
I think regardless of landing spot, Tua will end up as a low end QB1 / high end QB2 to begin his dynasty career. Thinking about the longer term, he has a top 3 QB potential in dynasty. He does come with durability concerns, however I feel that in a worst case scenario he can still be a mid level QB2, a top 16 type QB as his minimum for dynasty value.
Athletic Testing
Taylor had a super impressive combine, registering 98th percentile 40 yard time & 99th percentile speed score - the two athletic metrics with the strongest correlation to dynasty / fantasy success, as per a recent study I completed. The level of athleticism is impressive for a guy standing at 5’10 & 226 lbs, rivalling elite NFL RB Saquon Barkley. Taylor’s burst & agility scores are also above average, with the only downside being the sub-par result on the bench press (27th percentile). Athletically, I would consider Taylor to be the best in the class & also puts him top 5 all-time in my own scouting model.
College Production
Beastly! Taylor eclipsed over 2000 yards from scrimmage in each of his three seasons at Wisconsin. He also accumulated 55 total touchdowns - an average of 1.34 TDs, per game - outstanding production. In the pass game he was initially disappointing, making 8 grabs in each of his first two years - however upped this to a solid 26 in his junior season. It was also great to see his target share rise above 10% in his final college season. Taylor rushed 926 times for the Badgers - whilst some see this as a negative, I see durability that will continue into his NFL career.
Film Study
Jonathan Taylor DraftBreakdown
PROS: strong inside runner - fantastic power & effort in short yardage situations, always falling forward, fantastic vision, efficient on screen plays, breaks arm tackles, gets small through LOS, elite long speed - takes breakaways to the house, elusive in the open field, improvement as pass catcher in final season, makes defenders miss in the hole, developed outstanding patience, willing & able pass blocker.
CONS: inefficient on outside zone runs, not the most natural receiver out of the backfield, 18 fumbles in 3 seasons less than ideal, approaching 1000 college touches - long term durability concerns.
Player Combo Comparison
A combination of Saquon Barkley & Nick Chubb - superb long speed, excellent vision / patience & elite three down skillset potential. These players are lofty comparisons - however in my model Taylor registered a top 5 all-time pre-draft grade for an RB.
Dream Fantasy Spot
Taylor’s dream landing spot for fantasy production is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This would be a bit of a draft day fall for Taylor, with the Steelers first selection coming at pick 49 however it looks unlikely we’ll see a first round RB & a small trade up in the second is always a possibility. The Steelers are in their Super Bowl window with QB Ben Roethlisberger in his age 38 season with a need for elite production at the RB spot. James Conner can’t be relied upon, missing 9 games in the last 2 seasons & in the final year if his rookie deal. The Steelers need a solid RB to put them in contention for the playoff run, with Taylor being the best RB in the class. He would be a great fit for their power running scheme & ties in nicely with their underrated defense - which finished 3rd in DVOA last season. Taylor would give them the bigger back and bring back the nostalgia of the power running style of Jerome Bettis & the potential elite production of Le’Veon Bell. In this scenario, Taylor would be an all purpose RB & an instant top 3 dynasty RB right away.
Dynasty Value / Range
Taylor’s ceiling is absolutely massive, he could be a top 3 dynasty RB right away if landing in an optimum spot. He has untapped potential as an elite workhorse in the NFL. Taylor is the best pure runner from the class & an improving pass game ability. In a worst case scenario he could end up as an high-end RB2, giving him a great floor for dynasty value.
Athletic Testing
Whilst CeeDee Lamb posted less than elite numbers at the combine, he was still pretty solid across the board. Rocking up at 6’2, 198 lbs, he posted an above average 40 yard time & speed score - 67th & 63rd percentile respectively. His burst score was middle of the pack & he recorded nothing for agility score or catch radius. From seeing Lamb play, we know acrobatic catches are in his resumé and he glides in the open field, so there is little concern with these metrics. The fact that he can win a number of ways, whether it be speed, savvy moves or contested catches means he is less reliant on needing elite athleticism - although what he posted was above average overall.
College Production
As outlined in the above graphic, Lamb was a stud WR that produced at an elite level at Oklahoma. He was tied to future NFL stars Baker Mayfield & Kyler Murray, as the focal point of the Lincoln Riley offense - however it would be unwise to believe he is a system WR as Lamb creates his own TDs & wins a variety of different ways all over the formation. In his college career, Lamb posted an impressive 173 catches, 3292 yards & 32 TDs. He had an increased target share every season & was consistently catching 66%+ of his targets. In terms of the metrics, he registered a 77th percentile college dominator, 96th percentile college YPR & 81st percentile breakout age - all outstanding results, showcasing his stellar college production.
Film Study
PROS: productive from all WR spots in the offense, outstanding body control on contested catches, routinely makes sideline grabs, excellent adjustment to the deep ball, great at high pointing the ball, consistently beats man coverage, big performances against top opposition, good vision after the catch, glider out of breaks & through play duration, makes the tough catch in traffic, finds the hole in the zone, wins at every level of the field.
CONS: inconsistent release at line of scrimmage, lacks elite long speed, does miss the occasional easier grab, inconsistent run blocker with slighter frame.
Player Combo Comparison
A combination of Davante Adams & Odell Beckham - high-end acrobatic catches, moveable weapon around the formation, with slickness & style to take it to the house on any given play.
Dream Fantasy Spot
Lamb’s dream landing spot for fantasy production is the Philadelphia Eagles. Whilst it would be impossible for CeeDee Lamb to fall to pick 21 & the Eagles, there is a possibility the team from the city of ‘Brotherly Love’ make a move up the board - potentially with a team like the Browns at 10, jumping the WR queuing teams, to land the WR1 of the class. It should be worth noting that new Browns GM Andrew Berry, recently moved from the Eagles - so strong relationships could make this deal more likely. In Philadelphia, Lamb would be the best WR of Carson Wentz’s career & improve a truly old & woeful core. Alshon Jeffery & DeSean Jackson are on their last legs, JJ Arcega-Whiteside has the making of a bust, with the rest of the roster filled with the undrafted duo Greg Ward & Deontay Burnett. Out of the top 10 dynasty QBs not named Lamar Jackson - Wentz has by far the worst WR core. Wentz did remarkably well last season with such a poor supporting WR cast, however a move for a rookie WR is inevitable. Lamb has an ability to line up all over the formation & win from every alignment. He is a great route runner, contested catch bully & can win at every level - a dream prospect in terms of versatility and likelihood of hitting at the NFL level.
Dynasty Value / Range
Lamb has the potential to be an immediate impact in the NFL as one of the most non-landing spot dependant prospects in recent memory. He can initially be a WR2 in dynasty, with top 3 ceiling in due course. In a worst case I still feel he will be no lower than a WR2, making him a safe prospect with superb upside.
Athletic Testing
An absolute specimen of a man, Okwuegbunam displayed elite athletic ability at the NFL Combine - blazing a 4.49 40 yard time. This resulted in 99th percentile score for both this metric & speed score - which factors in weight, putting a premium on bigger athletes. From a recent study I completed on successful college metrics, these are the only two athletic metrics with a strong correlation to dynasty & fantasy success - where 100% of the top 20 dynasty TEs achieved at least 50th percentile on each of these two metrics. With no further combine results, there are questions regarding burst & agility, probably fair concerns based on film study.
College Production
Okwuegbunam was relatively productive at Missouri, registering 98 catches in 27 career games. We don’t usually see outstanding production from the TE spot in college, so far him to approach 100 catches is encouraging. The most impressive stat from his college profile is the 23 TDs, essentially scoring on every 4 receptions - making him a massive weapon in the red zone. With him only playing in 27 games in college, these numbers become more impressive. He posted an elite college dominator (90th percentile) & breakout age (91st percentile), however surprisingly had a low yards per reception at 12.1 during college.
Film Study
Albert Okwuegbunam DraftBreakdown
PROS: experience lined up out wide & in the slot, occasional usage out of the backfield, nice balance after the catch, blazing speed on vertical routes, untapped usage in the deep game, big body to wall out defenders, great concentration on lofted passes, improved run blocking in junior season, TD machine, tough to bring down after the catch.
CONS: inconsistent blocker in run game, plays soft at times, sluggish out of breaks, more of a finesse blocker at second level, can take plays off when not featured.
Player Combo Comparison
A combination of Mike Gesicki & Martellus Bennett - elite straight line speed, above average TD potential, with less than ideal agility & room for improvement as a blocker.
Dream Fantasy Spot
Okwuegbunam’s dream landing spot for fantasy production is the Indianapolis Colts. With star wide receiver T.Y Hilton & veteran tight end Jack Doyle both playing the 2020 season in their age 30 season, there is long term opportunity for volume in this offense. Outside of these two players there is no outstanding pass catcher on the roster - unless you count popular breakout contender Nyheim ‘Ekeler 2.0’ Hines. Frank Reich has a history of prioritising the TE position from a volume standpoint. He was top 2 in TE targets during his time with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016-17 & now with the Colts we saw them top 5 over the last 2 years. The Colts ‘lost’ Eric Ebron in free agency, with the current backup Mo Alie-Cox, soon to be 27 years old - totalling 15 career receptions. In this landing spot, I believe he can be an immediate impact on the red zone & has intriguingly physical tools in the longer term.
Dynasty Value / Range
Okwuegbunam will begin his dynasty career at the end of benches & taxi squads due to the late breakout of TE in the NFL. The ideal scenario would be to let someone else draft him & look to trade for next offseason. He will be situation dependent due to limited every down skillset but has a ceiling of low end TE1 in dynasty, if everything falls into place.
