All rankings mentioned will be under Full-Point PPR on Sleeper
The general consensus with analysts is that RB is a dying position, but that’s what the NFL wants you to believe. The teams know better than anyone just how valuable good RB play is to the offense and the team as a whole. No matter how pass-heavy the league shifts, the game of football wouldn’t be able to function without great RB play. While some scribes and pundits may view last season’s poor RB fantasy performance as a sign of what’s to come, I view it as more of an outlier that is bound to bounce back. In 2023 there was only one RB (Christian McCaffrey) who finished with over 300 total fantasy points. The last time that happened was in 2015 when Devonta Freeman was the sole RB to finish over 300 points. Ironically, the RB group of 2015 was even worse than this past year’s as the RB2 of 2015 would have finished as the RB7 of 2023. However, this is the worst year for RB’s PPG since 2008 with only two RBs in both years seeing at least 18.0 PPG. Admittedly, the days of RBs seeing 300+ carries are dead and gone. What you’ll see is that the top RBs are still getting 300 touches, but instead of carries they’ll be receptions. Every single RB inside the top 8 in 2023 saw at least 300 touches, other than Kyren Williams who missed 5 games, and Raheem Mostert who led the league in touchdowns. The lack of fantasy production is simple when you really dig into it. Besides Christian McCaffrey almost every RB was either on a middling offense or was inefficient because of the offense. A lot of the top RBs being drafted this year are in offenses that are projected to be good, so I’m expecting the overall position to bounce back. The RBs I have listed below are both in position to be a focal point in their offense, and all are in the best offenses of their careers.
High Tier
Jonathan Taylor
Once upon a time, Jonathan Taylor was right there with Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry as being lauded as the top RB in the league. Seems like a fairy tale right about now. A handful of injuries and two years later and we now have him being drafted as the RB5. Cheap, I know. Of all the RBs being drafted before him, there isn’t a single one I’d take over him. I say this as a Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson owner who is bullish on both. The last time he played a full season he finished as the RB1, and the year before that he was the RB6. The latter of the two included an extremely slow start to the year as it was his rookie season I might add. Even in 2023 if you take away the two games where the Colts were limiting his use while bringing him along, he averaged 17.6 FPPG which over a full season was good enough to be the RB5. This is during a season where he’s still coming back from injury and is in an offense that's missing its QB. At worst you get a return on your value, but in what I project to be a much-improved offense that will use him as its engine. We may have already seen the best of Taylor, but even so, I still believe he has multiple years of being a top performer in his position as he’s only 25. It honestly wouldn’t shock me if he outperformed his 2021 season at some point in his career. Outside of CMC, this is hands down the safest RB value pick in the top 5. The Colts already signed him to a massive deal and if you know NFL Franchises they’re going to get their money’s worth.
Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs' entry here may come as a shock to some, but I’ve been a believer in his talent since his Bama days. Even behind a mediocre-at best-offensive line for the majority of his career he’s produced RB8, RB11, and RB3 finishes in seasons of at least 15 games played. He now finds himself in the best offense and scheme of his career, and he’s currently going at RB11. His contract with the Packers does give me some pause as it's a 4-year deal on the surface, but digging deeper it's essentially four 1-year deals. The Packers also just signed A.J. Dillon to an extension and drafted Marshawn Lloyd in the 3rd round. Dillon, while he’s been a solid RB during his career, is not a threat to Jacob’s position. I do like Marshawn Lloyd as a prospect, but I believe the Packers drafted him more as an insurance policy should Jacobs not perform to their standards. Josh Jacobs should fit right into the Aaron Jones role as a rotating ball carrier and the primary third-down back, but I suspect he could take some early down work from Dillon as well. The Packers are a team that loves to utilize their RBs so neither back should be starved for work. Dillon has seen over 200 total touches in each of the past three seasons and in seasons of at least 14 games played Aaron Jones has seen at least 220 total touches while hitting over 250 on multiple occasions. On the flip side, Josh Jacobs hasn't seen less than 260 in any of his five seasons in the league. I expect this trend to continue, but should it break he has a safety net of the 220 floor that Aaron Jones ate up each year. The biggest difference is Josh Jacobs is a much better red zone touchdown threat than either back and should see plenty of opportunities in the high-powered Packers offense. At only 26 years of age, Jacobs should still have a good amount of tread left on his tires, and he’s set up for a massive bounce-back year.
Isiah Pachecco
It wasn’t too long ago one of the best acquisitions for fantasy was an Andy Reid RB. From Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, to Kareem Hunt Reid has found great production out of his RBs. When he hasn’t had a workhorse on the roster he uses a committee. Truly a simple man. Recent reports from Reid have been that with the departure of Jerrick McKinnon, Isiah Pachecco is poised to take on the third down role. Having just finished as the RB15 he’s currently going at the RB12, so it’s not a discount. Should he see more work as I’m predicting him to, and with the Chiefs offense projecting to be much improved with the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy he’ll see a lot more red zone work as well. Andy Reid has always been able to get the most out of his workhorses and Pachecco should be no different. Targeting RBs in high-powered offenses is always a good move especially if they have the backfield to themselves. Pachecco’s biggest threat for work is Patrick Mahomes because why run the ball 300 times when you have the best QB to lace up cleats possibly of all time? Thankfully, Pachecco has already had a top 15 finish with just a hair under 250 total touches. I doubt he sees 300 total, but with an upgraded receiving role he could easily see 260-280 total touches. If he sees double-digit touchdowns, which is a real possibility given the presumed upgraded offense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish top 10. Worst case scenario you selected a reliable RB at market value.
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