FF Astronauts DFS Week 1

Weekly introduction

Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.


This column will cover DFS analysis for the NFL through the 2020 season.


The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.


Each author will post their best line ups from the week before, and lessons learned from the previous week.


Data will be accumulated through the season and will be used for analytics that will be discussed regularly.


The authors will also go head to head in DraftKings to determine which analyst is the most trustworthy.


Value Picks


@FF_Spotlight


Joe Mixon, Cincinnati, $6,700


Going into a year with no game film except for last year, think back to the Chargers defense. Start your running backs versus the Chargers. With additional receiving options added and Burrow under center, pressure will be taken off Mixon. He needs 21 points to meet his salary and has good chances to exceed expectations.


Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95


Terry McLaurin, $5,600


I will make this one short. Last season, McLaurin averaged 5 catches, 127.5 yards and 1 TD against the Eagles in his two games. He is coming in as the 25th most expensive WR.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


TY Hilton, $5,800


Coming in at the 19th most expensive WR and going against Jacksonville, whose defense is depleted, looks for a top 12 finish for TY in week 1.


Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Chris Carson, $6,200


He is coming off a season-ending hip injury last year and until he proves he's back to 100% he is someone I want to stay away from at that price.


@FF_Spotlight


George Kittle, San Francisco, $7,200


Yes, last year Arizona was terrible against tight ends. Even if it was the same defense as last year, his points to meet salary of 22.6 points is a steep task. His salary is higher than Mixon, Godwin and Wilson, all of whom have better chances of scoring that many points.


Nathan McGuire


Cam Newton, $6,100


I like Cam. I do, I promise. I also vividly remember ol' Tom cursing on the sidelines because he has WRs that are not getting open. Also, who is New England's deep threat? Tom Brady is more accurate and a more experienced QB than Newton. If he cannot seem to find an open man, do I think Newton will? No. NE did not address that need, so although, I think they will adjust for Cam's skill set, NE's offense will not be boomin this season.


Must Have Player


Nathan McGuire


Austin Ekeler, $7,000


This will be the cheapest you can get Ekeler all season. Ekeler finished in the top 10 last year in RB fantasy points; with no Melvin Gordon and a safe QB in Tyrod Taylor, I expect Ekeler's touches to increase significantly.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Davante Adams, $7,300


Adams is the 3rd most expensive WR but the combination of going against Minnesota's young CB core and the high volume Adams will receive, I wouldn't be shocked if he is the top WR this week.


@FF_Spotlight


Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles, $7,000


Ekeler has a new quarterback in Tyrod Taylor and with Mike Williams out with injury. Ekeler will be a helpful safety blanket against last year's worst team in the NFL. His salary should demand 22 points.


QB


@FF_Spotlight


Cam Newton, New England, $6,100


Cam scoots in under the radar with his low cost of $6100. He only needs to score 18.9 points to exceed his expectations. Damien Harris is on IR, Sony is recently coming off the PUP and White/Burkhead are best used in the passing game. Look for him to be the teams best goal line back.


Nathan McGuire


Josh Allen, $6,500


Josh Allen was one of the best fantasy QBs last year for his ability to run. The Jets Dense is now coming in without Leonard Williams, CJ Mosley, and Jamaal Adams. I think that will create major opportunities in the middle of the field for Allen to test out his new weapon, Stefon Diggs.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Kyler Murray, Arizona, $6,400


Kyler comes in at week 1 as the seventh-highest priced QB, which I see him outperforming. Despite going up against a tough San Francisco defense, Kyler faired well against them last year, averaging 24.85 points in two games. Along with the new addition of a true WR1 in DeAndre Hopkins for this season, I see Kyler starting the season off hot.


RB


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Tarik Cohen, Chicago, $4,900


Tarik could be quite the valuable RB this Sunday, especially if David Montgomery is out of service. Montgomery with a groin injury is looking doubtful for week 1. If Cohen gets the reins as RB1 for Chicago week 1 against Detroit, who was 29th against RBs last season according to DraftKings, look for him to easily outperform that $4,900.


@FF_Spotlight


K. Johnson, Detroit, $4,400


Don't sleep on Kerryon Johnson. His massive hype the last two years followed by little production may lead owners to stay away from this flame in week 1. With D. Swift banged up and Johnson as the incumbent expect "fire" from him this weekend.


We didn't start the fire, he will!


Nathan McGuire


Marlon Mack, $5,300


Jonathan Taylor was built in a lab by a kid who played with GI Joe action figures his whole life. I could not create a thicker human being on Madden if I tried. But... until proven otherwise, Mack is the guy. Nothing but great reports coming out of camp this summer for a guy who nearly had 1100 rushing yards last year. They say he is catching the ball more now too. This is the cheapest you can get major upside at the RB position.


WR


Nathan McGuire


Greg Ward, $4,200


Simply put, its opportunity. It is sounding more and more likely that Reagor could suit up for Sunday. I still think that leaves ample opportunity for a guy with established chemistry with Wentz to step in and out perform his price. He is in the bottom of the pack in terms of price.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Davante Adams, Green Bay, $7,300


Again, Adams comes into week 1 as the 3rd highest priced WR on DraftKings and that is still looking to be too low. Him going up against Minnesota, whose CB room is completely revamped, I could easily see Adams being the top-performing WR. This might be your only chance to get use out of Adams before his price skyrockets.


@FF_Spotlight


Stefon Diggs, Buffalo, $6,400

Diggs gets new Diggs in Buffalo. He has shown to be excellent at fantasy and the soft matchup with the Jets will provide a great opportunity for him to show his stuff. He will need to score over 20 points to

match his cost.

TE


@FF_Spotlight


Hayden Hurst, Atlanta, $4300


The Atlanta and Seattle game could definitely be a high scoring affair. With this low price he only needs to score 13.5 points. With this low scoring tight end lots of opportunities for the rest of the roster open up. A lot of the time it just comes down to scoring the TD.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Jack Doyle, Indianapolis, $3,600


Doyle is now the lead dog in the TE room for Indy now that Ebron is with Pitt. Along with that, Trey Burton will be out this week. Also Indy is going up against Jacksonville, who as we all know has torn their defense to shreds. Doyle should have a large sum of the volume with only Mo Alie-Cox and Noah Togiai backing him up.


Nathan McGuire


George Kittle, $7,200


I know. I know. The most expensive TE. Hear me out; they are facing Arizona who gave up the most fantasy points to opposing TEs last year and it was by a long shot. The game between the best team and the 31st team against opposing TEs was 44.3 points; the gap between the 31st worst team and the Arizona Cardinals? 61.3 points. I think Isaiah Simmons will greatly help, but good luck rookie.


DEF


Nathan McGuire


Los Angeles Chargers, $2,800


Even without Derwin James, the Chargers still have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Could you name a secondary group worse for your NFL debut for Thee Tiger King, Joey B?


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Indianapolis, $3,000


They are playing Jacksonville and are reasonably priced at seventh highest for defenses. That's enough for me until Jacksonville proves they aren't tanking.


@FF_Spotlight


Detroit, $2,700


Detroit plays the Chicago Bears and Montgomery will likely be held out or in a significantly reduced role. Coach Nagy has been playing the confusion game by not determining his QB until late last week. This Bears offense has no bite.




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