Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 12 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland, $5,600
Scrolling through the flex position, I was sure this was wrong. Hunt's price has been $6,700 for the past two weeks and has dropped down to $5,600. This is the average salary for a player in DraftKings. Cleveland has been in three bad weather games, and this has hidden his potential. Nick Chubb is back, but Hunt still scored 19.1 fantasy points two weeks ago and had over 100 total yards. The Browns face Jacksonville this week who have recently declared Mike Glennon the starter. Look for a positive game script for the Browns and plenty of opportunities for the rushing attack.
@FF_Spotlight
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona, $8,100
This week Hopkins gets the tough matchup of Gilmore shadowing him. Hopkins is the most expensive WR this week and despite New England giving up a league-worst 9.7 yards per target to wide receivers, Gilmore is not a favorable matchup you look for at that price. Hopkins could have a solid performance and should get targets but I just don't see him outscoring his price this week. The reward just doesn't look to outweigh the risk.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Must Have Players
Nick Chubb, Cleveland, $7,100
If you are not looking for the value that Kareem Hunt offers that @FF_Spotlight talks about, ball out and take Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb has had a big run in both games since his return; he looks as healthy as ever. I believe this game against Jacksonville will be a run-heavy game. I expect big games from Robinson, Chubb and Hunt, but if I have to put money on one of those, I would chose Chubb.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
QB
Derek Carr, Las Vegas, $5,700
Carr has thrown 19 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions this year and averages 18.4 points per game. His projection on DraftKings to meet his salary is 17.1 points. His opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, have the worst defense against opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta has allowed 4,066 yards this year (406.6 yards per game!!) and 22 passing touchdowns (2.2 TD's per game). If Carr plays an average game, he would exceed his salary. If he takes advantage of the matchup, he has exceptional potential!
@FF_Spotlight
RB
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis, $4,600
Taylor is out this week with COVID restrictions, which means Hines will be getting a higher volume than usual against a weak run defense in Tennessee. They have ranked 25th against RBs on DraftKings so far this season. Hines has shown he can come out and have big-game performances and this week looks like another situation favorable for that. He will share time with Wilkins but I still expect him to have a higher amount of shares, especially in the passing game.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
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WR
Jamison Crowder, New York, $5,400
Joe Flacco does not like Jamison Crowder. Well, maybe. At least he does not like throwing him the ball, or maybe Crowder still was lingering from his injury. I like to think it was the first of the two options. However, Flacco is not starting this Sunday. We have Sam Darnald back under center who made his living by targeting Crowder 11.5 times per game in Crowder's first 4 games. I expect volume from the always trailing Jets..
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
TE
Mike Gesicki, Miami, $4,300
It's a rough week for tight end. With the COVID postponed game, after the top three options in Kelce, Waller and Henry, The next three TE's are all averaging around 8 points per game and those numbers a propped up by big games and brought down by complete stinkers. I'm not sure if you've ever gambled, but I feel like I'm spinning a roulette wheel. Engram pulls the defense that has the worst efficiency against tight ends and will probably be highly owned. Gesicki also has a good tight end match up against the Jets and has some built in quarterback issues with Tua and Fitzpatrick. Here's why Gesicki is a good bet. He's scored over 6 points in the last three weeks and had his best game against Buffalo who have had major issues in the red zone. Similarly, the Jets have let up 21 red zone touchdowns along with the 2,883 yards through the air.
@FF_Spotlight
DEF
Cleveland, $3,100
Cleveland has had a solid season on Draftkings averaging 7.1 points. This week they have the matchup of going up against Jacksonville, who will be playing without DJ Chark and is starting Mike Glennon at QB. Glennon hasn't started a game since 2017, so I expect Cleveland's defense to capitalize and score double-digit points this week.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 12
D. Jones ($5,500) - W. Gallman Jr. ($5,000) - E. Engram ($4,500) - D. Slayton ($4,900): Value, value, value! The matchup with Cincinnati allows this stack to have major upside. It's been a while since Slayton blew up, Engram is coming off a down week, but had been scoring around 10 points, and Gallman Jr. has been quietly carrying the load in New York after Freeman's injury. Daniel Jones is the gel that allows this offense to perform with smoothly. They'll have lots of opportunities.
@FF_Spotlight
Carr ($5,700) - Jacobs ($7,200) - Ruggs ($4,300): This stack is full of value with Carr as the 18th highest priced QB and Ruggs the 49th highest priced WR. Raiders are up against the Falcon's weak defense and that should result in all three outperforming their prices. Ruggs is risky but he's a ticking time bomb to explode for a big play, I'm betting it comes this week.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
J. Herbert($7,200)- K. Allen($8,000)- : This is a small two-man stack because neither are cheap. This will occupy a good amount of your budget, but oh could it be worth it. This is the highest ceiling duo this week.
Nathan McGuire
DATA POINT - WEEK 12
Kyler Murray has been a QB1 (top 12 QB) in every single game he's played this year, his worst point total on DraftKings was 20.3 points last week against Seattle.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Justin Jefferson ranks #1 in yards per route amongst all eligible WRs with 3.16 yards per route.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Buffalo's defense has allowed 1,350 yards rushing, 15 rushing touchdowns and 25 red zone touch downs.
@FF_Spotlight
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 11
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Cousins, $6,200, 26.96 points
RB: Gibson, $5,800, 17.40 points
RB: Hines, $5,200, 8.30 points
WR: Thielen, $6,300, 35.30 points
WR: Jefferson, $6,000, 17.60 points
WR: D. Johnson, $5,900, 26.10 points
TE: Henry, $4,600, 14.80 points
FLEX J. Meyers, $4,900, 6.80 points
DEF: Pittsburgh, $4,600, 17.00 points
Total: $49,500, 170.26 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Cousins, $6,200, 26.96 points
RB: Harris, $5,700, 12.40 points
RB: Burkhead, $4,600, 3.20 points
WR: Thomas, $7,300, 22.40 points
WR: Thielen, $6,300, 35.30 points
WR: Jefferson, $6,000, 17.60 points
TE: Goedert, $3,800, 18.70 points
FLEX: Davis, $6,800, 15.90 points
DEF: Minnesota, $3,300, 4.00 points
Total: $50,000, 156.46 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Watson, $6,500, 34.36 points
RB: Cook, $9,000, 29.00 points
RB: J. McKissic, $5,200, 9.90 points
WR: C. Ridley, $7,000, 14.00 points
WR: Smith-Schuster, $6,400, 5.90 points
WR: Pittman Jr., $4,500, 15.60 points
TE: Ebron, $4,000, 13.60 points
FLEX: Peterson, $4,000, 1.80 points
DEF: Vikings, $3,300, 4.00 points
Total: $49,900, 128.16 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 11
Nathan McGuire: 156.46
Alex Edwards: 137.24
@FF_Spotlight: 118.12
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (7-3-1): 17 pts
Alex Edwards (3-5-3): 11 pts
@FF_Spotlight (1-3-7): 5 pts
