FF Astronauts DFS Week 13
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 13 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Anthony Miller, Chicago, $3,100
***DISCLAIMER: The following piece is written by a Chicago Bears Fan***
Hmm, who put the disclaimer up there?! Anyways, let's get to the facts, shall we? Sometimes players play better against a particular team for whatever reason. Mitchell Trubisky owns the Lions. That may be the only team he consistently beats, but it is Lions week. Anthony Miller has 18% of all of his CAREER catches against Detroit alone. Ok well that is because it is a division opponent, right? WRONG. He has 22 catches against Detroit and 21 against Minnesota and Green Bay COMBINED. This is 5 games to 10. Plus you cannot get much cheaper than $3,100.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta, $7,200
New Orleans defense has been excellent in the last few weeks. Julio is really banged up and even Hurst has been coming up in injury reports. Although Ridley is not on the injury report, he is coming off a foot sprain that had him sidelined for week 9 and 10. He can be a great asset for your season long fantasy team, but it’s unlikely this will be a week that he scores in the top five wide receivers. He will need to score over 22 points to be worth his salary, but his early season ceiling has dropped way down.
@FF_Spotlight
Must Have Players
Nick Chubb, Cleveland, $7,700
It can be tough for someone to come through with back to back top performances but Chubb is looking to do just so. Following a 29.6 point performance against Jacksonville, Chubb has another favorable game against Tennessee, who ranks 26th against RBs according to DraftKings. Despite Kareem Hunt sharing some time with Chubb out of the backfield still, look for Chubb to get plenty of volume. He has at least 19 carries the past three games, along with three straight 100+ yard performances, I look for him to go for four.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee, $6,200
Cleveland Defense is not great by any means, but they are top 10 in rushing yards per game. Due to Derrick Henry, I doubt they are top 10 entering week 14. However, Cleveland is also 22nd in passing yards, and most of those statistics were accumulated with their best corner, Denzel Ward. Denzel Ward is going to be sitting out another week; as Cleveland continues to pile on injuries to their secondary, this provides ample opportunities to AJ Brown and Corey Davis.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
RB
Chris Carson, Seattle, $6,300
A cold streak has come over Russell Wilson like the coming of winter and it is opening more opportunities for the rushing game. Carson missed weeks 8-11 with a foot injury and was only sparsely used last week. The Giants have let up 87 yards on the ground per game this year and 0.83 touchdowns each game while only allowing 224 yards per game in the air. Seattle will look to the ground game this week in a matchup that shouldn't be particularly high scoring with Daniel Jones likely sitting. Carson will need around 19 points to meet his salary, but if things thaw out and he nabs two TD's in this game during a focus on the rushing attack. We'll all be happy.
@FF_Spotlight
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WR
Adam Thielen, Minnesota, $7,300
Coming out after missing a game due to COVID restrictions, Adam Thielen has the combination of a reasonable price and favorable matchup. Thielen is the 7th highest priced WR, which could seem expensive but Thielen is also coming off a 35.3 point performance on week 11 and 20.3 point performance on week 10. A top 5 performance could be incoming, especially with the matchup against Jacksonville, who is ranked 26th against WRs according to DraftKings. As long as he gets his usual volume, look for Thielen to have a big week in his return.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
TE
Evan Engram, New York, $4,900
Engram has had a big, $400, price jump from last week; coming off his best game of the season and arguably his whole career. That is sometimes a deterrent; the buying high mindset. Well, I like his targets. I also like the fact that his opponent this week just gave up 7/75/1 to Dallas Goedert last week who has a similar receiving skill set. Seattle's defensive backs are getting healthier which has shifted their vulnerability to the TEs.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
DEF
Los Angeles, $3,200
There are a lot of good defense with similar price points this week, Saints, Vikings, Seahawks, Rams, Bears, and Colts (listed from highest price to lowest price). A great NFL defense this year has been the Rams. They apply lots of pressure up front without having to bring excess pressure and their defensive backs have been able to stay tight in coverage long enough for the D line to be disruptive. I had always heard that left tackles have sleepless nights before Sundays worrying about edge rushers. I wonder if QB's do the same for Aaron Donald. Their best fantasy performance against a high powered offense was Seattle in week 10 where they scored 13 points. Metcalf scored 4.8 PPR points, Lockett scored 11.6 and Russell hit his floor for the year with 12.9 points. Russell was not injured and could use his legs. This week Murray will probably be avoiding contact again nursing his shoulder injury and that hamstrings their offense.
@FF_Spotlight
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 12
Cousins($6,400) - Thielen($7,300) - Jefferson($6,900): This game has a lot of potentials for stacks on the Vikings side. Thielen’s price is low coming off the COVID list, Jefferson can perform as a top WR and is valuable for price with Thielen coming back and Dalvin Cook can always take a pass to the house. It all bodes well for a Cousins in a good matchup against the Jags.
@FF_Spotlight
Rodgers ($6,800) - Adams ($9,000) - Tonyan ($3,700): If it wasnt for Mahomes doing Mahomes things, Rodgers would be a favorite for the MVP, look for Rodgers to continue his great season against Philadelphia. Adams and Tonyan look to be the benefactors, creating a great stack opportunity with Green Bay.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Tannehill ($6,200) - AJ Brown ($7,600) - Corey Davis($5,100): As I mentioned earlier, Cleveland is facing several key injuries in their secondary including both Greedy Williams (IR) and Denzel Ward.
Nathan McGuire
DATA POINT - WEEK 12
Aaron Rodgers has scored 23+ points on DraftKings 6 straight weeks.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Mitchell Trubisky has a 14:4 TD:INT versus Detroit. If there is every a week to play Trubisky it is this week.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Week 13 is typically the last week of the fantasy regular season. Tell your friends that do not make the playoffs to fill their fantasy void with DFS on DraftKings.
@FF_Spotlight
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 12
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Allen, $7,600, 17.48 points
RB: Chubb, $7,100, 29.60 points
RB: Hines, $4,600, 17.50 points
WR: Anderson, $6,100, 19.40 points
WR: Jefferson, $6,300, 26.00 points
WR: Meyers, $5,300, 10.20 points
TE: Henry, $4,800, 13.70 points
FLEX J. White, $4,500, 14.70 points
DEF: Rams, $3,700, 15.00 points
Total: $50,000, 163.58 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Herbert, $7,200, 20.44 points
RB: Chubb, $7,100, 29.60 points
RB: Hines, $4,600, 17.50 points
WR: Allen, $8,000, 16.00 points
WR: Crowder, $5,400, 6.10 points
WR: Pittman, $5,000, 4.80 points
TE: Hooper, $3,800, 9.30 points
FLEX: Anderson, $6,100, 19.40 points
DEF: Kansas City, $2,700, 5.00 points
Total: $50,000, 128.14 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Carr, $5,700, 4.60 points
RB: Drake, $5,400, 24.30 points
RB: Gallman Jr., $5,000, 18.10 points
WR: K. Allen, $8,000, 16.00 points
WR: Crowder, $5,400, 6.10 points
WR: Agholor, $4,900, 10.40 points
TE: Engram, $4,500, 20.90 points
FLEX: Chubb, $7,100, 29.60 points
DEF: Saints, $3,800, 14.00 points
Total: $49,800, 144.00 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 12
Nathan McGuire: 128.14
Alex Edwards: 81.38
@FF_Spotlight: 127.10
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (8-3-1): 19 pts
Alex Edwards (3-5-4): 11 pts
@FF_Spotlight (1-4-7): 6 pts
