FF Astronauts DFS Week 14
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 13 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati, $4,900
He may be without Burrows but Boyd still can bring value to DFS. He proved that last week on a 72-yard touchdown reception he had, before getting thrown out of the game. This week Boyd has a favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who rank 31st against WRs this season on DraftKings. As long as he is still able to get his typical volume, I expect Boyd as a top 12 finisher out of the WRs in the main slate and with his price set as WR36, he could bring monumental value.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, $7,500
The perk of facing a divisional opponent for the second time is: you already have had a insight into the matchup. Now, that is not always true whether that is due to injuries, weather, or new developments such as a Head Coach getting in fired in Detroit possibly. However, Detroit is establishing an identity that, when working, limits the opposing offense. In their first matchup, Rodgers had his second lowest point total of the season (19.2), and his 3rd lowest total passing yards (240). This is one I would sit Rodgers, and hope for Swift, Jones, and Williams to get their touches.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Must Have Players
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota, $7,400
Tampa Bay has an excellent rushing defense. It's so good that people aren't even trying to run against them. Pass, pass, pass, and then more pass! The ratio of passing touchdowns to rushing touchdowns is almost 3-to-1 (23 passing to 8 rushing). When you look at the past two weeks the number of passing yards allowed to rushing yards allowed is unreal. Week 12 vs. KC 456yards passing allowed compared to 87 rushing yards. Week 11 vs. LAR 376 yards passing allowed compared to 37 rushing yards. If you use stats from the whole year to avoid recency bias they’ve let up 3068 yards in the air and 890 yards on the ground. That’s almost 3.5-to-1 ratio! These are just the matchup stats. Justin Jefferson has been excellent! If you go back to my Rookie WR bust rate article from the preseason, the common thread between all rookie wide receivers that were WR24 or better in their rookie year was
Veteran QB (Cousins)
Established running game with a RB in the top ten of fantasy points scored the year before (Cook)
Be drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft
Jefferson was drafted in the first round. Two out of three criteria isn’t bad! Jefferson’s (61/1039/7) stat line is headlined with his 4th overall ranking in receptions yards so far this year. He’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game the past four games and has a 42.6 point ceiling. He’ll need around 21 points to meet his salary and the odds are in his favor.
@FF_Spotlight
QB
Kyler Murray, Arizona, $7,200
His two worst performances on DFS have come the past weeks but I'm looking for Kyler to bounce back this week against the Giants. The Giants do have a tough defense, ranking 3rd against QBs on Draftkings but they give up the 21st most passing yards per game. Kyler has a rushing TD in 8/12 games for the season, look for him to run for another this week, and come out with a top 5 finish for QBs.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
RB
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas, $6,600
Zeke has had a turbulent year. He is still on pace for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns though. Overall, not bad considering the circumstances. However, DFS does not care about circumstance. It is cold and unforgiving. Game situations have led Dallas to passing more and running less, but McCarthy has stayed committed to the run game. In a game that I do not foresee getting away from Dallas and facing the 29th ranked rushing defense. I think Zeke is a solid and low-usage play this week.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
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WR
Allen Robinson, Chicago, $6,800
Robinson has been a good wide receiver all year and he really steps his game up with Trubisky under center. He has two touchdown upside, has been the most targeted option all year for the Bears and is a focus in the red zone. He matches up with Houston this week and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III who ranks in the bottom 9% of all 125 active corners according to PFF CB ranks. The Houston defense, as a unit, has let up 255 yards per game in the passing attack with almost two touchdowns through the air each week. He’s averaged between 27 and 33 percent of the target share in the last five weeks, is 5th in the NFL in receptions this year (77) and 12th in Fantasy points per week (16.4 ppg) according to playerprofile.com. To score and meet his salary he will need around 19 points. His ceiling for the year is 31.1 points and it happened with Trubisky. In his contract year, on this critical week, give me Allen Robinson.
@FF_Spotlight
TE
Dalton Schultz, Dallas, $3,500
Since Andy Dalton has come back in week 11, Schultz has averaged 5 targets and has seen at least 4 targets through the last 7 games. Combine that volume for a low priced TE going up against Cincinnati, who ranks 31st against TEs on Draftkings and you have a top 10 TE performance incoming. I also look for him to come away with a TD in this game.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
DEF
New Orleans, $3,800
I hate paying up for a defense. It rarely pays off and the most expensive defense rarely is the highest scoring defense.... but I like this one. Carson Wentz was the most sacked QB in the league behind his banged up line. Heck, even Hurts has been sacked 3 times with 0 starts. The Saints are tied for third in the league in sacking the opposing QB. Also, I am not a professional scout, but I am not sold the Jalen Hurts can be a capable passer in this league.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 14
Stafford ($5,700) - Swift ($6,500) - Jones Jr. ($5,800): Detroit will need to score to keep up with the Packers this week. People have been hesitant with Swift coming off a concussion and illness. This is a tournament stack with projected low ownership.
@FF_Spotlight
Brady ($6,900) - Evans ($6,600) - Godwin ($6,300): This may be a heavily priced stack but going up against Minnesota young CBs, who rank 26th against WRs on Draftkings, look for Godwin and Evans to feast.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Herbert ($6,800)- Ekeler ($7,000)- Allen ($7,700): The duo with the highest target share in the whole league. With a favorable opponent in Atlanta, time to pull out the big guns.
Nathan McGuire
DATA POINT - WEEK 14
Taysom Hill is averaging 22.8 points per game on DraftKings the last 3 weeks since filling in as starting QB for Brees.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Cole Kmet has taken over as the lead TE in Chicago and he is only $2,900 this week. Worthy of a note.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Beware the free square. Back up running backs assuming lead back roles have more often been busts than bangs in recent weeks.
@FF_Spotlight
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 13
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Cousins, $6,400, 26.40 points
RB: Robinson, $7,300, 22.80 points
RB: Ekeler, $7,100, 10.80 points
WR: Woods, $5,900, 18.50 points
WR: Cooks, $5,600, 11.50 points
WR: Davis, $5,100, 38.20 points
TE: Waller, $6,100, 48.00 points
FLEX: Gore, $4,400, 0.20 points
DEF: Jets, $2,100, 5.00 points
Total: $50,000, 181.40 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Tannehill, $6,200, 31.56 points
RB: Cook, $9,500, 26.90 points
RB: Taylor, $5,700, 22.50 points
WR: AJ Brown, $7,600, 11.70 points
WR: Davis, $5,100, 38.20 points
WR: Miller, $3,100, 10.90 points
TE: Gesicki, $4,200, 23.80 points
FLEX Pittman, $4,900, 9.60 points
DEF: Seattle, $3,300, 9.00 points
Total: $49,600, 184.16 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Carr, $5,800, 35.74 points
RB: Chubb, $7,700, 17.60 points
RB: Booker, $5,500, 6.10 points
WR: Adams, $9,000, 37.10 points
WR: Agholor, $5,200, 7.80 points
WR: C. Davis, $5,100, 38.20 points
TE: Akins, $2,900, 3.00 points
FLEX: Montgomery, $5,500, 27.10 points
DEF: Seahawks, $3,300, 9.00 points
Total: $50,000, 181.64 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 13
Nathan McGuire: 184.16
Alex Edwards: 142.88
@FF_Spotlight: 141.10
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (9-3-1): 21 pts
Alex Edwards (3-5-5): 11 pts
@FF_Spotlight (1-5-7): 7 pts
