Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 17 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams, $4,300
Malcolm Brown gets the lead back role in week 17 with Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson injured. Cam Akers is questionable but with a high ankle sprain look for Brown to get the bulk of the volume. The Rams will also be without Jared Goff after he got surgery on his thumb. This means John Wolford is the starter, so the game script sets up for the Rams to rely on the run more. Arizona is ranked 23rd in rushing yards per game given up with 126.5. So, Brown has the opportunity available for a solid performance while only costing $4,300, that's the 42nd highest priced active RB this week. He should easily outperform that and possibly bring in a top 12 RB performance if he is the lead back over Akers.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
David Johnson, Houston, $6,800
David Johnson is coming off his best fantasy performance (31.9 points) and has a combined 59.2 points over the last two games. He has been on fire to be frank, but as we dive deeper, one was an outlier 11 reception, 106 yard receiving game against the Colts and a respectable game two TD game against Cincinnati. This week facing a Tennessee team with a lot to play for that allowed him 13.9 points in their first matchup. I suspect Houston will need to air it out to keep with this Tennessee team that will run all over the Houston Defense. Ignore the green match up on this one.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Must Have Players
Derrick Henry, Tennessee, $9,400
What happens when an unstoppable force meets a "movable" object? The unstoppable force rushes for 200 yards and 2 TD's. I swear Derrick Henry treats the regular season as mere child's play. He's really conserving energy to explode in the playoffs. The Titans need a win to be in without counting on other teams to lose. They took a bad beating last week and Houston has been generous to offenses in the past few weeks. For reference, the Houston defense is the lowest cost DraftKings option at $2,000. Their last matchups, in order of most recent to oldest, CIN, IND, CHI, IND, DET. The corresponding running backs put up the following stat lines (rushing/rush TD/receptions/receiving yards/receiving TD): Bernard (66/0/7/66/0) & Perine (95/2/4/41/0), Taylor (83/1/4/12/0), Montgomery (113/1/3/42/0), Taylor (91/0/3/44/1), Peterson (55/2/0/0/0). 'Nough said.
@FF_Spotlight
QB
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami, $5,100
Tua is coming off a weak performance against Las Vegas where Fitzpatrick had to come in and save the day for Miami's playoff hopes. But this week I look for Tua to bounce back against Buffalo, who ranks 31st against QBs on DraftKings. Also, Tua doesn't have to worry about Fitzpatrick filling in for him with Fitzpatrick being out due to COVID protocol. Miami's playoff hope is in Tua's hand and I expect him to show why he was a top 10 draft pick with a 20+ point game.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
RB
David Montgomery, Chicago, $7,700
Unless you have put your hater blinders on, you may have noticed David Montgomery is now the 6th ranked running back in standard and PPR formats. He has had 4 out of his last 5 games have over 27 points (the one was still 20+). This streak was started in Green Bay when he posted his first 100 yard rushing game with a receiving TD. Rather than letting Trubisky test the corners in Green Bay, I expect Montgomery to get his touches while they try to keep Rodgers on the sidelines.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
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WR
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota, $7,600
Let's take a walk down narrative street... Records: Jefferson needs 111 yards to break the rookie receiving yards record. Dalvin Cook is out. The Vikings have been eliminated from the playoffs, but so have their opponents the Lions. The Lions will be playing with a very banged up Stafford, who exited the game early last week. Expect the Vikings to continue with the same game plan they had with Cook in the line up and run, run, run, set up the pass, deep bomb to Jefferson for a 50 yard touchdown. He breaks the receiving record, exceeds his salary expectation, and he goes into the offseason joining AJ Brown, Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster as rookies that were able to perform as WR2 or better in their first year.
@FF_Spotlight
TE
Mark Andrews, Baltimore, $5,800
Baltimore is still competing for a spot in the playoffs with their game against Cincinnati this week, with that there's no worries about any starters sitting out for rest. Along with that, Andrews has a favorable matchup against Cincinnati, who ranks 29th against TEs on DraftKings. In their first matchup Andrews had a solid performance bringing in 6 receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 17.6 points on DraftKings. In the past five weeks Andrews has played he has scored at least 12.5 points per game. I look for him to continue that and bring in a top 3 TE finish for the week.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
DEF
Arizona, $2,800
The Rams will be without Kupp, Goff, and Henderson. This is an offense that was not loaded with offensive talent to begin with, so I think there will be a lot going for the Cardinals in this must-win game.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 17
Drew Brees ($5,900) - Emmanuel Sanders($5,500) - Jared Cook ($4,700): Brees has been an afterthought with the rushing attack taking the driver's seat and Taysom Hill leading the way in Brees' absence. Kamara, Murray and Washington are all out at running back with COVID and contact tracing. Ty Montgomery is upgraded to running back. They need a win to clinch the sole first round bye in the playoffs. Hill can be a sneaky start as well. They'll need to air it out and rely on their defense for the win.
@FF_Spotlight
Kirk Cousins ($6,300) - Alexander Mattison ($6,100) - Justin Jefferson ($7,600): Dalvin Cook is out this week so Mattison gets the start and look for Cousins and Jefferson to continue their connection against Detroit's terrible defense, who is on pace to give up more yards than they did in their 0-16 season.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Deshaun Watson ($7,700) - Brandin Cooks ($6,900) - Keke Coutee ($5,600): Facing a Tennessee defense that allows a lot of points and Derrick Henry on the other side; expect the Texans to air this game out
Nathan McGuire
DATA POINT - WEEK 17
Justin Jefferson is 111 yards away from breaking the rookie record for receiving yards, which has been held by Anquan Bolden since 2003.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
In the 30 years of having 12 teams make the playoffs, only twice has an eleven-win team missed the playoffs. This year, despite 14 teams making the playoffs, three teams have the potential to miss the playoffs with 11 wins.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
The Chiefs, Steelers, and Bills will rest starters, or starters will only play partial games.
@FF_Spotlight
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 16
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Mahomes, $8,500, 20.22 points
RB: Montgomery, $7,700, 20.10 points
RB: Henderson, $4,500, 6.20 points
WR: Cooks, $6,200, 30.10 points
WR: Cooper, $5,700, 19.10 points
WR: Crowder, $4,500, 29.32 points
TE: Hooper, $3,500, 14.10 points
FLEX: Le'Veon Bell, $5,800, 4.90 points
DEF: Bears, $3,600, 6.00 points
Total: $50,000, 150.04 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Trubisky, $5,700, 24.60 points
RB: Sanders, $7,000, 18.40 points
RB: Bell, $5,800, 4.90 points
WR: Robinson, $7,700, 23.30 points
WR: Crowder, $4,500, 29.32 points
WR: Sims, $3,300, 9.30 points
TE: Hooper, $3,500, 14.10 points
FLEX: Kelce, $8,500, 22.80 points
DEF: Chicago, $3,600, 6.00 points
Total: $49,600, 152.72 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Hurts, $7,000, 24.58 points
RB: Chubb, $7,800, 17.60 points
RB: Taylor, $7,300, 19.40 points
WR: Gage, $5,100, 6.30 points
WR: Higgins, $4,700, 21.90 points
WR: Crowder, $4,500, 29.32 points
TE: Hurst, $3,400, 15.70 points
FLEX: Sanders, $7,000, 18.40 points
DEF: Washington, $3,000, 9.00 points
Total: $49,800, 162.20 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 16
Nathan McGuire: 132.84
Alex Edwards: 112.28
@FF_Spotlight: 159.60
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (9-6-1): 24 pts
Alex Edwards (4-5-6): 13 pts
@FF_Spotlight (3-5-8): 11 pts
