Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at week 7 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Darnell Mooney, Chicago, $3,500
This isn't just a value pick but an extremely valuable pick! This week Mooney only cost $3,500! He had a very impressive game last week against the Rams despite only scoring 7 points on DraftKings, he had 7 targets and beat Jalen Ramsey on a route that would have made his score a lot higher if Foles didn't overthrow the pass. Chicago goes against New Orleans this week who ranks 17th against WRs on DraftKings. That rank is pretty average but New Orleans has also averaged giving up 29 ppg. Despite Foles struggles, this week is a good opportunity for him to improve and Mooney could be beneficial. I predict have his highest reception total this week with a TD. A double-digit score for Mooney would easily have him outperforming his price tag.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
Tyler Lockett, Seattle, $7,100
Lockett has now had two games of 40+ points on DK: 40points on week 3 against Dallas and 56 last week against Arizona. That allows us to blissfully ignore the 5.9 and 8.4 games he had in between. Anyways, I think we can all admit that a 20 target game is far from expected and quite possibly will not happen again in his career. This week he is facing a stingy 49ers defense that has only allowed 206 passing yards per game, 3rd in the league. I foresee this game being a lower scoring bout that does not justify Lockett's $700 price spike (nor DK's $200 jump after a subpar game).
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Must Have Players
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland, $6,900
Expect high winds in this game. Weather, or not, this offense relies on the run game. High winds means more rushing attempts for Hunt. Cleveland lost Beckham last week and they can lean on Hunt this week. He hasn’t been scoring many touchdowns yet and it will help that he will be counted on more this week. His previous stats don’t set him up well for this must play, but the conditions and matchup favor him greatly.
@FF_Spotlight
QB
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, $7,600
Rodgers is going up against Minnesota this week for the second matchup this season. In his first game against Minnesota, he had an outstanding performance, scoring 33.8 points on DraftKings, with 364 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs. Minnesota already was struggling this season with their young CBs but this week they are very light at the position with possibly only 3 healthy CBS. Hughes and Dantzler are expected to miss this week and Holton Hill and Kris Boyd are all on the Injury Report as well. It may be difficult to outscore Rodgers in week 1 but I see it as a possibility given the injuries.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
RB
Derrick Henry, Tennessee, $8,000
Ugh. Henry is going to have a ridiculous usage rate which sucks. However, we are two weeks removed from Henry being the must-have player of the week. Cincinnati has allowed a staggering 4.9 ypc to opposing RBs this year. Oh yeah, the will no longer have Carlos Dunlap now either. I know the price tag is hefty, but we may be looking at another 200 yard rushing game for Henry. Suck it up and get this man on your roster.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
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WR
Brandon Aiyuk, San Fransico, $5,800
Aiyuk is up against the Seattle Seahawks. Games against the Seahawks have typically been high scoring and that means fantasy points. San Fran is down Deebo, Jeff Wilson, and Mostert. Kendrick Bourne has not been exceptional this year. Aiyuk has the moves and quickness to make a difference in this matchup. He's scored over 20 points twice this year and is coming off his first 100 yard receiving game. This week is his highest priced week in DraftKings yet, and he will be worth it. Even they know it's a great matchup for him.
@FF_Spotlight
TE
Darren Waller , Las Vegas, $5,600
Darren Waller has a favorable matchup this week going against Cleveland, who ranks 28th against TEs this season on DraftKings. Cleveland has given up 100.9 points in 7 games so far this season to TEs, giving up an average of 14.4 points. Waller is the 4th highest priced TE for this week but should live up to that value with a top 5 finish. I expect Waller to score 20+ points this week with a good chance of being the highest scoring TE in week 8.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
DEF
Detroit, $2,500
Confession: Picking the defense is my guilty pleasure. Defenses are often overlooked but rarely do you see winning lineups have less than 10 points from their defense. In no other position, is there a higher frequency of out performing their price when below the $3,000 tag. Is Detroit a great defense? No. But... they have only allowed 30 points twice this season to the Saints and Packers. They are facing Philip Rivers who has a TD:INT of 7:6. They need to contain Jonathan Taylor, possibly get up early, and you have an absolute steal at $2,500.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WEEK 8
@FF_Spotlight
Garapollo, $5,400 -Aiyuk, $5,800: This is a cheap stack that can be really profitable. San Fran’s defense is not up to the caliber that it was last year. They will need to score to keep up with Russel Wilson, who’s been in the kitchen.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Rodgers, $7,600 - Adams, $8,800 - Valdez-Scantling, $3,800: All three of them had a great game against Minnesota in week 1 and I expect them to do the same this week with Minnesota being light at the Corner position.
Nathan McGuire
Cousins, $6,000- Jefferson, $6,500- Thielen, $7,200: I anticipate Cousins to be throwing the ball a lot this week. Justin Jefferson will likely be opposite Jaire Alexander, but Thielen has had 58 catches for 804 yards against the Packers since 2016
DATA POINT - WEEK 8
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
56 points scored this past week by Tyler Lockett is the most scored on Draftkings since last season when Will Fuller scored 56.7.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Derrick Henry's game will be played on November 1st. In Henry's career he has averaged 3.88 ypc in September, 4.33 ypc in October, and 5.87 ypc in November. It is Henry SZN
@FF_Spotlight
No one just wants to do mediocre. Target line ups for 200 points. Aiming for 155 is not enough.
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 7
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Burrow, $5,500, 38.64 points
RB: Kamara, $7,900, 22.80 points
RB: Conner, $6,700, 14.10 points
WR: Golladay, $6,700, 20.40 points
WR: Lockett, $6,600, 56.00 points
WR: Kirk, $4,900, 20.70 points
TE: Sample, $3,200, 10.20 points
FLEX: Swift, $5,400, 14.80 points
DEF: Washington, $2,500, 17.00 points
Total: $49,400, 214.64 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Burrow, $5,500, 38.64 points
RB: Kamara, $7,900, 22.80 points
RB: Hunt, $6,800, 19.20 points
WR: McLaurin, $5,800, 22.00 points
WR: Higgins, $5,300, 18.80 points
WR: Green, $4,300, 15.20 points
TE: Fant, $4,800, 6.80 points
FLEX: AJ Brown, $6,300, 30.30 points
DEF: Washington, $2,500, 17.00 points
Total: $49,200, 190.74 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Wilson, $8,000, 35.92 points
RB: Carson, $6,400, 5.10 points
RB: Gurley II, $6,000, 22.20 points
WR: Adams, $7,900, 47.60 points
WR: Golladay, $6,700, 20.40 points
WR: Miller, $3,700, 25.90 points
TE: Henry, 4,500, 5.30 points
FLEX: Green, $4,300, 15.20 points
DEF: Washington, $2,500, 17.00 points
Total: $50,000, 194.62 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 7
Nathan McGuire: 144.56
Alex Edwards: 191.74
@FF_Spotlight: 117.02
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (4-2-1): 10 pts
Alex Edwards (3-4-0): 10 pts
@FF_Spotlight (0-1-6): 1 pts
