FF Astronauts DFS Wild Card Sunday
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and @FF_Spotlight.
Let's take a look at the Sunday Wildcard main slate.
Value Pick
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh, $5,500
JuJu was a hot commodity in past years and seen as a rising star. Now he's been eclipsed by Dionte Johnson ($6,200) and Chase Claypool ($5,200). JuJu has 97 receptions this year for 831 yards and 9 touchdowns. He's been a good performer in the last two weeks with 24.6 and 18.5 points. Those totals are more than Dionte's scores in those same weeks (21.6 points and 12.6 points). JuJu needs to score 19 points to meet his salary.
@FF_Spotlight
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
David Montgomery, Chicago, $6,900
David Montgomery has been on fire in his last six games, he has scored over 20 points on DraftKings in every game. But this week looks like where that streak could come to an end against New Orleans stout defense. New Orleans is ranked number 1 against RBs on DraftKings for the season. This is also the second time going against New Orleans this season, in the first matchup Montgomery had 12.5 points. I foresee a similar point range, as well as expect Chicago to be playing from behind, resulting in an unfavorable script for Montgomery. He just doesn't have the matchup to be worth his $6,900 price, which is third-highest for RBs on Sunday.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Must Have Players
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans, $8,500
Last time New Orleans visited Chicago, he walked away with 25 points that did not include a TD. 9 catches on 13 targets will do that for you. New Orleans is entering Chicago at full strength, but one thing will remain true: Alvin Kamara will always be Drew Brees' WR1. The volume will be there, and the Bears have been allowing points lately. I expect him to have the highest ceiling in Sunday's game slate.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
QB
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland, $5,400
This is mostly a matchup play. The Steelers defense started the year very well and people started to take note. Devin Bush (ILB) went down with a torn ACL on November 11th and Bud Dupree (OLB) tore his ACL on December 2nd (week 12). Since then, Pittsburgh's D has been in decline, yet their season long numbers are still really good. The Browns just played the Steelers in week 17, but don't be confused because Ben Roethlisberger did not start. Baker scored only 16.2 points last week, and he'll only need that again to meet his salary. Look for the Steelers to get the ball moving through the air on offense and for the Browns to be pushed out of run first mode to win their first playoff game.
@FF_Spotlight
RB
JK Dobbins, Baltimore, $6,600
Dobbins has still been sharing the backfield with Gus Edwards but his carries have started to be more consistent in the last 5 games, getting at least 11 carries in each game. His efficiency with those carries has also been great, scoring at least 13 points in each of those games, meaning he is averaging above a point per carry in those games. He is just missing the volume and pass game impact. Still, I look for him to have a valuable impact in this matchup against Tennessee, who Baltimore is looking for revenge against, from their loss last year in the playoffs. Tennessee has struggled against the run, ranking 28th against RBs on DraftKings for the season. This is also the second match against Tennessee for the season and Dobbins had 18.5 points in that first game. I look for Dobbins to breakout a 20+ point performance as Baltimore gets their revenge, winning against Tennessee and giving Dobbins a favorable game script.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
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WR
Marquise Brown, Baltimore, $5,400
Drawing the weakest defense to make it into the playoffs, Baltimore is going to need to put up points to match the #2 offense in the NFL. Luckily, you can both run and pass on this Titans Defense. It is a defense that has struggled with speed all season. Marquise Brown is going to provide Baltimore the opportunity to generate big plays on Sunday. Brown has been averaging nearly 7 targets per game over the last 6 games, and I think he will have a big game this weekend.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
TE
Jared Cook, Cleveland, $4,600
The Bears defense has been vulnerable to tight ends this year and his matchup up has pushed his salary up to the second most among TE's this week at $4,600. Their last matchups have been, (most recent to least recent) GB, JAX, MIN, HOU, DET, GB. Tonyan scored in both of his games, Tyler Conklin (MIN) scored, Akins dropped a TD, and Hockenson had 7 receptions for 84 yards. Cook has scored over 11 points in the last two weeks and scored against Carolina. He'll need 9 points to meet his salary.
@FF_Spotlight
DEF
New Orleans, $3,800
New Orleans gets the best matchup for the Sunday games this wild card weekend going up against Chicago. Chicago ranks 17th against DSTs on DraftKings for the season. In their matchup against Chicago earlier in the season New Orleans defense had 7 points on DraftKings. I look for them to have the best possibility to score double digits out of all the defenses on Sunday.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
FAVORITE STACKS FOR WILDCARD SUNDAY
@FF_Spotlight
Trubisky ($5,300) - Montgomery ($6,900) - Robinson II ($6,500): This stack has worked well for the last few weeks. Value comes from using Trubisky at QB because Robinson II and Montgomery are both top 3 highest salaries in their positions this week. Montgomery will need 19 points and he hasn't scored under 20 since week 12.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Roethlisberger ($6,100) - D Johnson ($6,200) - Ebron ($3,700): Cleveland has been struggling against the passing game, ranking 21st in passing yards per game given up. Passing is obviously Pittsburgh strength, so look for them to continue to have a high volume of throwing. Cleveland has also struggled with TEs, ranking 28th against them on DraftKings, making Ebron a very valuable play alongside Roethlisberger and Diontae Johnson
Nathan McGuire
Jackson ($7,800)- Marquise Brown ($5,400)- Andrews ($5,200): Does it feel right that this is not even the most expensive stack on this article?! It makes me feel dirty and I like it. The poor defense is going to create a high scoring affair.
DATA POINT - WILDCARD SUNDAY
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Tampa Bay hasn't won a playoff game since 2002, when they won the Super Bowl against Oakland.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Derrick Henry outrushed 22 NFL teams; however, Tennessee did not finish as the #1 rushing team. That honor went to their opponent , Baltimore by 23 more rushing yards per game.
@FF_Spotlight
The Browns haven't made the playoffs since 2020 and they haven't won a playoff game since Wildcard week in 1994! Don't forget that the Browns have never been in a Superbowl.
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 17
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Tagovailoa, $5,100, 21.24 points
RB: Taylor, $7,400, 41.40 points
RB: Swift, $6,300, 16.00 points
WR: Lamb, $5,200, 9.60 points
WR: Shepard, $5,200, 36.60 points
WR: Marvin Jones, $5,100, 41.00 points
TE: Andrews, $5,800, 6.70 points
FLEX: J Jefferson, $7,600, 25.30 points
DEF: Jets, $2,300, 2.00 points
Total: $50,000, 199.84 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Watson, $7,700, 29.80 points
RB: Montgomery, $7,700, 28.20 points
RB: Swift, $6,300, 16.00 points
WR: Cooks, $6,900, 42.60 points
WR: Guyton, $3,400, 00.00 points
WR: Gage, $5,100, 25.20 points
TE: Andrews, $5,800, 6.70 points
FLEX: Brown, $4,300, 2.80 points
DEF: Arizona, $2,800, 10.00 points
Total: $50,000, 161.30 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Beathard, $5,200, 14.92 points
RB: Taylor, $7,400, 41.40 points
RB: Wilson Jr., $6,000, 23.80 points
WR: AJ Brown, $7,200, 34.10 points
WR: Gage, $5,100, 25.20 points
WR: Pittman Jr., $4,100, 5.00 points
TE: Kittle, $6,000, 13.80 points
FLEX: Mattison, $6,100, 29.50 points
DEF: Arizona, $2,800, 10.00 points
Total: $49,900, 197.72 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 16
Nathan McGuire: 161.30
Alex Edwards: 199.84
@FF_Spotlight: 154.64
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (9-7-1): 25 pts
Alex Edwards (5-5-6): 15 pts
@FF_Spotlight (3-5-9): 11 pts
