FF_Astronauts DFS Week 4


Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.


This column covers DFS, DraftKings, analysis for the NFL through the 2020 season.


The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and FF_Spotlight.


Each author posts their best line ups from the week before, and lessons learned from the previous week.


Data will be accumulated through the season and will be used for analytics that will be discussed regularly.


The authors will also go head to head in DraftKings to determine which analyst is the most trustworthy.


Let's take a look at week 4 of the Sunday main slate.


Value Pick


Preston Williams, Miami, $4,500


Preston Williams is a guy who showed flashes of being a very good WR in the NFL. This week his return from an ACL surgery has been slow. His snap share has been decreasing (partly due to the short week last week), but this week on coming off an extended break, I expect that trend to snap. Oh and they are playing Seattle, everyone's favorite defense for targeting WRs allowing 430 passing yards per game. That atrocious number came with Jamal Adams suited up. Dolphins will be down early, so this is Preston WIllaims' week


Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95


Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)


Tom Brady, Tampa Bay, $6,100


Tompa Tom faces the Los Angeles Chargers this week. The Chargers defense and pass rush looked strong against the Chiefs in week 2. Don't expect Chris Godwin in this matchup and Fournette has been held out of practice this week. Expect Tom to be under duress all game from the ferocious pass rush while the secondary coverage will be tight.


@FF_Spotlight


Must Have Players


Alvin Kamara, New Orleans, $8,000


Kamara has been on a rampage in 2020 through three weeks. He is averaging 36.6 points on DraftKings. That alone makes him a must-start, as he is outscoring Christian McCaffrey's pace through three weeks last year 109.8 to 84. Along with his production so far, the matchup this week is also an advantage, going up against Detroit, who is ranked 30th against RBs on DraftKings. For $8,000 you are still getting Kamara well worth your money.

Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


QB


Matthew Stafford, Detroit, $5,900


We have forgotten about Stafford because recency bias is very real in fantasy football. Matthew Stafford is THAT GUY let us not forget that. Last year, prior to Stafford breaking his spine, he was fourth in fantasy points per game amongst QBs; only behind Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott. Now as the 14th most expensive QB, a healthy backfield, a healthy Golladay, and a defense in New Orleans that gives up points in the early part of the season. The stars are aligned to spell a good day for Stafford to resume form.


Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95


RB



Nick Chubb, Cleveland, $7,000


Nick Chubb has been outscoring projections for the last two weeks scoring 29.3 and 27.0 points in DraftKings in week 2 and 3 respectively. He'll need to break 21 points to match his salary, but expect lots of points in this game against the Cowboys with the highest expected points total in the main slate of 54.5. Kareem Hunt has been listed with a groin injury this week and even with him at full health Chubb has been excellent. The strength of the Browns in 2020 is the running game. Look for them to control the clock with the run game to keep Dak Prescott off the field.


@FF_Spotlight


Grab a 5% off discount on FTN's stellar set of tools to get you the edge and help you win big money all season long. Use our promo code: ASTRO



WR



Will Fuller, Houston, $5,900


It seems like Fuller always has at least one breakout game in a season. Last year, it came against Atlanta on week 5 scoring 56.7 on DraftKings. This year it could be week 4 against Minnesota. Through three weeks, Minnesota is ranked 30th against WRs on DraftKings. A key issue for Minnesota has been giving up the deep ball on a weekly occurrence. That just so happens to be Fuller's expertise with his blazing speed. Don't be surprised to see Fuller bring in a deep TD or 2 this week and go off for 30+ points.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn



TE


TJ Hockenson , Detroit, $6,300


I know I chose two Lions players and I chose two Cowboys last week, but Hockenson is having a very good year quietly. He is #7 in TE ypg and #10 in fantasy points in DraftKing scoring formats. Meanwhile, New Orleans is allowing 96 ypg to opposing TEs and 4 touchdowns. The TE position can be a bit of a wildcard, but Hockenson has been seeing a larger snap share each week, a favorable matchup, and is coming off his season high in targets.


Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95


DEF



Chicago Bears, $3,100


The receiving core for Indianapolis has been decimated with Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman going down with injury. Meanwhile, T.Y. Hilton has not picked up the slack. Jonathan Taylor has been a bright spot, but the teams is becoming one dimensional. The Bears are also a sneaky play after coming off the win versus the Falcons who scored 30 points.


@FF_Spotlight


LESSONS LEARNED FROM WEEK 3


@FF_Spotlight


Expect the unexpected. Many unheralded players took center stage in hard to predict matchups.


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Sometimes you can start multiple receivers on the same team, as Lockett and Metcalf are both averaging 20+ ppg.


Nathan McGuire


Kamara is approaching McCaffrey status. Last year, you needed McCaffrey, this year Kamara is approaching that status. At least until the looming Michael Thomas return.


DATA POINT - WEEK 3


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


Green Bay has had a different flex option player breakout for over 25 points each week on DraftKings. Adams for 44.6 in week 1, Jones for 48.6 in week 2, and Lazard for 29.4 in week 3.


Nathan McGuire


Last week, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen combined for 62.5% of the targets for the chargers, 27 and 35 percent respectively.


@FF_Spotlight


Tyler Lockett outscored Rex Burkhead with a score of 40.0 points vs. 34.8 points, but if you look at effectiveness, every point that Rex Burkhead scored cost your salary $115 compared to $160 dollars. An investment in Burkhead was 40% better than an investment in Lockett.


BEST LINE UP - WEEK 3


Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn


QB: Murray, $6800, 24.70 points

RB: Davis, $5100, 23.10 points

RB: Taylor, $7000, 13.20 points

WR: Robinson, $6200, 31.30 points

WR: Gallup, $5500 28.80 points

WR: Slayton, $4900, 7.30 points

TE: Goedert, $4900, 1.70 points

FLEX: Lockett, $6400, 40.00 points

DEF: Patriots, $3200, 15.00 points

Total: $50,000, 185.10 points


Nathan McGuire


QB: Wilson, $7300, 39.80 points

RB: Conner, $6700, 27.9 points

RB: Drake, $6000, 8.9 points

WR: Cooper, $6500, 17.6 points

WR: Lockett, $6400, 44.0 points

WR: McLaurin, $5900, 12.6 points

TE: Thomas, $3700, 7.1 points

FLEX: Pascal, $4500, 5.4 points

DEF: Washington, $3000, 1 points

Total: $50,000, 160.30 points


@FF_Spotlight


QB: Tannehill, $5,900, 16.74 points

RB: Ekeler, $6,800, 31.3 points

RB: Sanders, $6,400, 14.70 points

WR: Ridley, $7,200, 19.7 points

WR: Metcalf, $6,500, 23.00 points

WR: Robinson II, $6,200, 31.30 points

TE: Thomas, $3,700, 7.10 points

FLEX: Wilson Jr., $4,000, 21.90 points

DEF: NYG, $2,700, -2 points

Total: $49,400, 163.74 points


HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 3


Nathan McGuire: 118.58 pts

Alex Edwards: 178.7 pts

@FF_Spotlight: 121.4 pts


HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG


Nathan McGuire (2-0-1): 4pts

Alex Edwards (1-2-0): 4pts

@FF_Spotlight (0-1-2): 1pts

Contact  |  Join the Team  |  Patreon  
  • White YouTube Icon
  • White Twitter Icon
  • White Spotify Icon
  • White iTunes Icon
  • White RSS Icon

© 2020 Fantasy Football Astronauts, LLC. All Rights Reserved.