FF_Astronauts DFS Week 5
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
This column covers DFS, DraftKings, analysis for the NFL through the 2020 season.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and FF_Spotlight.
Each author posts their best line ups from the week before, and lessons learned from the previous week.
Data will be accumulated through the season and will be used for analytics that will be discussed regularly.
The authors will also go head to head in DraftKings to determine which analyst is the most trustworthy.
Let's take a look at week 5 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Darius Slayton, New York Giants, $4,8000
Slayton has struggled mightily throughout the last three weeks after a hot start in week 1. Slayton had two TDs in week 1 and hasn't had one since. This week NYG are going up against the Cowboys, who's defense hasn't been great to say the least (DAL ranks 31st on DraftKings against WRs). With the combination of Sterling Shepard on IR and going up against Dallas, look for Slayton to finally bring some value, and bring in a TD.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland, $6,500
Kareem is due for an increased workload in leu of Nick Chubb's injury. He is coming off his best rushing game of the season thus far against the terrible Dallas Defense. This week will be a very different story. Kareem is facing the best defense in the league in Indianapolis. Indianapolis ranks 4th in rushing defense and 1st in passing defense. Not to mention, Hunt is coming off a game he received 0 targets as more are going to the WRs. A nagging groin injury, a stingy defense, and an evolving offensive dynamic can spell Hunt owners some problems. For a player coming in as the 7th most expensive RB (excluding McCaffrey), I think it is best to avoid Hunt this week.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Must Have Players
Dak Prescott, Dallas, $7,400
One of these weeks he is going to bust, but I don't think it's this one. He is on pace to throw almost 7000 yards this season and 1690 yards in four games. He has scored over 30 points in his last three games and over 40 points in two of them. To match his salary he will need to score around 22 points. The Cowboys defense has kept the pressure on Dak to throw, throw and his fantasy numbers have skyrocketed.
@FF_Spotlight
QB
Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina, $5,900
Teddy had a great week last week scoring 27.2 on DraftKings against Arizona. I expect another solid score this week from Teddy going up against Atlanta. They rank 23rd against QBs on DraftKings. Atlanta also gives up the second-most passing yards per game averaging 341.5 yards. Week 5 should be Teddy time.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
RB
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas, $6,300
JOSH JACOBS HAS GOTTEN CHEAP ALERT. This is the cheapest Jacobs has been all season. He is $500 cheaper than he was last week. In games Las Vegas wins, Jacobs averages 26 carries; in games Las Vegas loses, he averages 15.5 carries. They are facing the Chiefs who allows 161 rushing yards per game, 28th in the league. Not to mention, there is one formula that has made it theoretically possible to beat Patrick Mahomes; keep him off the field. Look for the Raiders to get Jacobs going early and often.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
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WR
DJ Chark Jr., Jacksonville, $6,500
D C J, DCJ, It rolls off the tongue. Maybe DJCJ, that's better. Look for Chark to continue making a splash after his injury early in the season. With the huge stat line of 8 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TD's on 9 targets last week his production speaks for itself. When Chark is playing, Minshew is better. This matchup against Houston is also one to target with an implied points total of 54. Looking at Houston's defense since week 1, they let up 34 points to the Chiefs in week 1, 27 points to Baltimore in week 2, 28 points to the Steelers in week 3 and even 31 points to Minnesotta last week! This baby shark will doo doo doo in Texas.
@FF_Spotlight
TE
Mo Alie-Cox , Indianapolis, $4,200
Even with Doyle and Burton back, Mo looks like the best receiving option for Indianapolis at the TE position. The three of them split snaps last week, all getting above 30 snaps out of the total 72. Because of injuries at the WRs position, Indianapolis is utilizing multiple TE sets. This week they are going up against the Browns, who are ranked last against TEs on DraftKings. It may be a little risky with a crowded TE room but I still expect Mo to have a solid week against a team who has really struggled against TEs so far this year.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
DEF
Indianapolis Colts, $3,300
Simple math time. When you can get the #1 defense at the price of the #10 defense, you should do it. The Colts have 10 sacks, 2 safeties, 2 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions already. Not to mention they only allow 236 yards and 13 points per game. This is a complete defense from top to bottom lead by Justin Houston, Darius Leonard, DeForest Buckner, and Xavier Rhodes. Yikes. Baker Mayfield is only passing for 182 ypg, they will not have Nick Chubb, and I am not anticipating any 30+ yards TDs being thrown from a WR this week.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
LESSONS LEARNED FROM WEEK 4
@FF_Spotlight
Injuries destroy predictions. The match up can be there, the past production shows a good performance is due. Then BAM! injury and everything goes out the window.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Predicting who will be the lead RB for a team can go wrong from time to time. Henderson looked like he should have been the lead back for the Rams after two great weeks but in week 4 he took the back seat to Malcolm Brown.
Nathan McGuire
Luck will always be a factor in this game. Whether it is avoiding injury or Odell running for a 50 yard TD in garbage time.
DATA POINT - WEEK 4
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Kenyan Drake looks to be in real trouble. He was going up against Carolina, who was in last against the run and still only scored 3.5 points on DraftKings.
Nathan McGuire
Robert Tonyan is the #2 TE and Amari Cooper is the #1 WR in standard PPR formats. I just think we need a reminder of those numbers as they are still being slept on.
@FF_Spotlight
Dak Prescott is the most likely player on all 1st place rosters in every week this year. His stats are on fire!
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 4
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Fitzpatrick, $5400, 26.30 points
RB: Henderson, $5800, 4.80 points
RB: Jones, $4700, 21.80 points
WR: Metcalf, $6800, 17.60 points
WR: Evans, $6400, 28.20 points
WR: Fuller, $5900, 25.80 points
TE: Waller, $5200, 16.80 points
FLEX: Parker, $5700, 24.00 points
DEF: Ravens, $4000, 6.00 points
Total: $49,000, 171.30 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Fitzpatrick, $5400, 26.30 points
RB: Kamara, $8000, 20.9 points
RB: Robinson, $6500, 14.7 points
WR: Zay Jones, $3000, 7.2 points
WR: Lockett, $6400, 5.9 points
WR: Parker, $5700, 24.0 points
TE: Hockenson, $4800, 10.9 points
FLEX: Fuller, $5700, 25.8 points
DEF: Indianapolis, $3300, 7.0 points
Total: $49,600, 142.70 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Wilson, $7,800, 24.90 points
RB: Robinson, $6,500, 14.70 points
RB: Henderson, $5,800, 4.80 points
WR: Kupp, $6,700, 17.70 points
WR: Jefferson, $5,200, 17.30 points
WR: Higgins, $4,500, 13.00 points
TE: Andrews, $6,000, 20.70 points
FLEX: Vaughn, $4,000, 10.60 points
DEF: Indianapolis, $3,300, 7 points
Total: $49,800, 155.90 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 4
Nathan McGuire: 134.90 pts
Alex Edwards: 160.50 pts
@FF_Spotlight: 117.9 pts
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (2-1-1): 5pts
Alex Edwards (2-2-0): 6pts
@FF_Spotlight (0-1-3): 2pts