FF_Astronauts DFS Week 6
Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
This column covers DFS, DraftKings, analysis for the NFL through the 2020 season.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and FF_Spotlight.
Each author posts their best line ups from the week before, and lessons learned from the previous week.
Data will be accumulated through the season and will be used for analytics that will be discussed regularly.
The authors will also go head to head in DraftKings to determine which analyst is the most trustworthy.
Let's take a look at week 6 of the Sunday main slate.
Value Pick
Phillip Lindsay, Denver, $4,300
Rankings came out before much word had come out in Melvin Gordon III’s DUI and speeding chargers. Gordon has also had an illness this week. If you go back in time to before the free agent signings, Phillip Lindsay was going as an RB2 after his great performance last year. Lindsay’s bout with turf tie early this year has left people forgetting about him. He only needs around 12 points to meet his salary. In 2018 he averaged 12.5 points per game (ppg) and 10.2 ppg in 2019. Expect him to be a RB3 with upside.
@FF_Spotlight
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota, $7200
This week Mattison will be filling in for Cook as the starting RB against the Falcons with Cook having a groin injury. Mattison has been impressive as the RB2 but this week he is priced as the 3rd most expensive active RB on DraftKings. I don't doubt that he will have a solid week and may even score 20+. But the risk of rostering him at the price of $7200 just seems to be too much to me, with more favorable prices on cheaper RBs who I could see scoring the roughly the same or more. His matchup is favorable against Atlanta and I expect him to do well, just not top 3 scorer well. Maybe calling him a bust this week is the wrong name, rather just not worth the price.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Must Have Players
Jamison Crowder, New York, $6100
You know that feeling when you are shopping in the store and find something you do not really want, but the price is too good to pass up? That is Jamison Crowder. Look at the DraftKings roster for week 6 and note Crowder's 25.5 points per game; that is second only to Devonte Adams. Yet, Crowder comes in as WR16. In every game he has played he had at least 7 catches, 104 yards and 10 targets; not to mention, 2 TDs in three games played as well. He may have a larger usage rate then you would like, but he is worth the price of admission.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami, $5,900
The beard does what the beard wants and it wants to score touchdowns. Fitzpatrick has scored over 25 DraftKings points in his last 4 games and has been on a terror. If he scores over 18 points he will be worth his salary. He is getting the most out of his skill position players and having fun at the same time! He also has rushing scores in two of his five games. He has shown a high floor and a high ceiling. He has thrown the 7th most passing touchdowns this year and is 12th in passing yards. He has really started heating up and look for the red fire symbol next to his name this week.
@FF_Spotlight
RB
Myles Gaskin, Miami, $5400
Gaskin has surprised most people and has taken the lead back role for the Dolphins in 2020. He has averaged 13.7 points on DraftKings and has a favorable matchup this week going against the New York Jets, who are ranked 29th against RBs on DraftKings. He should be scripted to have plenty of opportunities and I wouldn't be surprised if this is his highest scoring week yet, surpassing his 20.1 points last week. Gaskin is also extremely cheap this week as the 16th highest priced healthy RB. He should easily outscore that rank and price.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
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WR
Chase Claypool, Pittsburg, $5,200
Pittsburgh is facing the 30th ranked passing defense having allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game. Since preseason, Big Ben and Eric Ebron have been warning us that this dude is going to be a problem. Well, he was a problem last week. Coming off their impromptu bye week Claypool more than matched his targets from weeks 1-3 and has seen his snap share double since weeks 1 and 2. The talent is undeniable and the price is hard to beat.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
TE
Jonnu Smith , Tennessee, $5,200
This tight end has the highest points per game average in the Sunday main slate at 17.5 points per game. Jonnu Smith has capitalized through injuries to AJ Brown, Corey Davis and Adam Humphries as a reliable target for Ryan Tannehill. Smith has scored two touchdowns in two separate games this year and was only held without a score in a single game (out of four games). The Titans have scored over 30 points in their last three games and there are scores to go around. He has been targeted five or more times in every game this year.
@FF_Spotlight
DEF
Indianapolis Colts $4000
The Colts are currently averaging the second-highest points on DraftKings at 12.6 points per game (out of the teams available this week). Not only that but this week they get the matchup against the Bengals who are 22nd against defenses on DraftKings. With how terrible the Bengals offensive line has been, I would expect Indianapolis to dominate in that matchup.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
LESSONS LEARNED FROM WEEK 5
@FF_Spotlight
Pick players outside of your comfort zone. Spice things up.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
A lot of RB scoring is dependent on the game script. If a team is playing from behind, more than likely that RB isn't going to be scoring as much.
Nathan McGuire
This game is not all about drafting talent. You are drafting scorers. Opportunity beats talent in this game more often than not.
DATA POINT - WEEK 5
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Ryan Fitzpatrick is currently QB7 in PPR format, wouldn't have expected that at the beginning of the year.
Nathan McGuire
The Dolphins have worn their white jerseys on week 6 every year dating back to 1999.
@FF_Spotlight
Dak
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 5
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Murray, $7200, 30.30 points
RB: Robinson, $6700, 11.00 points
RB: Gurley, $5700, 28.00 points
WR: Anderson, $5900, 22.50 points
WR: Crowder, $5800, 28.60 points
WR: Slayton, $4800, 23.90 points
TE: Waller, $5900, 15.80 points
FLEX: Shenault, $4500, 14.90 points
DEF: Chiefs, $3500, -1.00 points
Total: $50,000, 174.00 points
Nathan McGuire
QB: Bridgewater, $5900, 23.82 points
RB: Gurley, $5700, 28.00 points
RB: Jacobs, $6300, 22.50 points
WR: Crowder, $5800, 28.60 points
WR: Anderson, $5900, 22.50 points
WR: Johnson, $5600, 0.80 points
TE: Ebron, $4000, 8.30 points
FLEX: Robinson, $6700, 11.00 points
DEF: LA Rams, $4000, 12.0 points
Total: $49,900, 157.52 points
@FF_Spotlight
QB: Minshew II, $6,200, 23.84 points
RB: Robinson, $6,700, 11.00 points
RB: Davis, $6,400, 29.90 points
WR: Lamb, $6,000, 23.40 points
WR: Dionte Johnson, $5,600, 0.80 points
WR: Slayton, $4,800, 23.90 points
TE: Schultz, $4,800, 1.60 points
FLEX: Drake, $5,700, 13.20 points
DEF: Steelers, $3,800, 8.00 points
Total: $50,000, 135.64 points
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 5
Nathan McGuire: 135.72 pts
Alex Edwards: 106.62 pts
@FF_Spotlight: 86.94 pts
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire (3-1-1): 7pts
Alex Edwards (2-3-0): 7pts
@FF_Spotlight (0-1-4): 1pts
