Intro to the 2021 Rookie Guide

The universe of Dynasty analysis is starting to hit its stride. With the launch of the 2021 Rookie Guide, the Astronauts are taking prospect evaluation to the next level.

Grading System

Football is complex. Our methodology captures this complexity and simplifies it by merging film analysis and analytical profiling to the same scale. Rookie prospects are analyzed and graded in 3 categories:

  • Film - Identifying a player's on-field ability and skillset

  • Analytics - Assessing a player's production, athleticism, and draft capital profile

  • Landing Spot - Evaluating the team: the ecosystem that the player will be joining and the opportunity for touches early in his career

These three individual grades combine to form a final Overall Grade. The scale for these main grades is measured on a scale of 60-100.

The standard Overall Grade presented on the Player profile page uses a balanced distribution as its formula: Film (45%), Analytical (45%), Landing Spot (10%). Because everyone prioritizes data differently, we created a Scale Slider on the Ranks page. By adjusting the slider, users can customize the formula used to calculate the Overall Grade in the rankings table (shown below).

For example, the setting above favors Film to Analytics at a ratio of 70:30 and then adjusts the Overall Grade with 16% contribution from the Landing spot.

Trait Grading System

The Film, Analytical, and Landing Spot Grades are formed by grading individual traits of a player's profile or on-field performance. These individual traits are graded on a 5.0 scale:

Analytical Profile and Landing Spot are evaluated statistically. The analytical model features college production, age-adjusted developmental data, market share & competition analysis, athleticism data. With analytical profiling, we're identifying which components of a player's profile are most relevant to fantasy success and grading them in relation to the historical data of the past 15+ years of running back prospects. The Landing Spot grade uses a formula that identifies which teams provide the best opportunity for fantasy success. This formula calculates team and depth chart value by incorporating contractual commitments, draft capital investments and teammate performance measures. The running back Landing Spot score rates the rookie's Opportunity for early volume by evaluating the talent of the rest of the depth chart on the team AND it estimates the value of those touches by evaluating the strength of the Offensive Line and the Offensive Scheme that he will be playing in.

Film is graded differently by each individual expert. The trait categories are identical and the grade scales are built to match, but each of our analysts has the opportunity to evaluate with their own methodology. My personal model provides proof that this process is not only relevant for fantasy, it can also be the most valuable component of prospect evaluation.

Previously, Draft Capital (how high a prospect was selected in the NFL Draft) was the most important singular component of a rookie's profile. Over the last two seasons of implementation, my Film Grades outperformed Draft Capital in correlation to on-field productivity per game. To put it honestly, I'm such a stellar scout that I'm not only outperforming the NFL WR scouting collective without interviewing any of these players in person, I'm also outperforming the bias of GMs and coaches who make decisions on which players get touches according to the cost of their respective investment.

Small sample size aside, it's safe to say two things:

  1. The proof of concept for FFA's Film Grading process is legit<