All rankings mentioned will be from Sleeper
Outside of the top 4 dual-threat QBs there’s another tier of elite fantasy QBs that are just a hair worse than the cream of the crop. Finding elite QBs is a science I feel as though I’ve mastered over the many years whether it be early, mid, or late round. Once you know what you’re looking for it isn’t hard to find. I write this piece of text for those who won’t be drafting a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, or a Lamar Jackson. You know what you’re getting into with taking one of those QBs, but for someone who annually selects QBs on a Mr. Krabs budget those names are a little too rich for me. Yes, having a top-tier QB drastically raises your roster’s quality on a week-week basis. It’s also true that by drafting one of those aforementioned QBs at their value you’re sacrificing a premium WR, RB, or even TE if you wanted to get a little spicy. It’s possible for you to hit on middle to late round skill positions, but it’s much easier to get an elite QB in these rounds than a top 12 skill position or hell even top 20. Drafting QBs late is a skill that isn’t for the faint of heart. Just this past year I found myself with my back against the wall and all my top options snatched from underneath my nose. At the back end of the draft I selected Jordan Love and Brock Purdy and the rest was history. Every single year for as long as I’ve been playing fantasy football there have been top 10 QBs that get overlooked for one reason or another and fall through the cracks of the draft. I’m not saying the people I will present to you are 100% guaranteed hits, but I can present you with the information needed to make an educated decision on a very important piece of your roster. Walk with me.
Joseph Lee Burrow [Joe Burrow]
Full government name is appropriate for this man right here because in the only two full seasons he’s played in this National Football League he’s finished as the QB7 (20.5 PPG) and QB4 (21.7 PPG). Buy all of the injury and recency bias tax that’s occurred on his price. I’ll be the loudest individual singing C.J. Stroud’s praises, but the hype he’s getting right now is how people will go back to valuing Joe Burrow this time next year. He’s currently going as the QB7 off the board which is around the 5th or 6th round of a 12-man league. Meaning you can get starters at WR, RB, and TE before selecting a premium QB. Or, you can go WR crazy and zero-RB strategy it. However you choose to draft your team Joe Burrow is the pot of gold at the end of the early-middle round rainbow. A 4k-yard and 30-touchdown season looks like it could be the baseline for this current Bengals offense. The Bengals are gearing up for another 600+ pass attempt season as they just traded RB Joe Mixon to the Texans and have a clear downgrade in the backfield. Still sporting JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins at the WR position, but also adding Jermaine Burton through the draft. Mix all of that with a below-average defense. Sprinkle on the fact that he’s extremely frustrated with how poorly the team started last season and when they finally got on track he suffered a season-ending injury. Joe Burrow is on a mission to remind the league who the Bengals are. If I'm reading my recipe book correctly it says that these are all the makings for an elite fantasy QB season. If you are looking at a QB early and missed out on the first four off the board then Joe Burrow should be next up on your list, and at the price he’s going at you’d be better off punting those top guys anyway.
Kyler Murray
A fan favorite that I’ve seen as the consensus buy-low QB, Kyler Murray. In his peak years of being an elite fantasy QB, he was going as high as the 3rd or 4th round in most leagues. Now he’s currently the QB9 and you can grab him in the 7th or 8th depending on your league. Kyler has been an extremely electric player since the moment he came into the league, and his style of play translates very well for fantasy. In the three seasons he played 14 or more games he finished as the QB10, QB3, and QB6. With the QB10 finish coming in the season he missed two games and only played 14. Even after coming back from his ACL injury, he produced an average of 18.9 PPG which slotted him at QB9 in that category. Considering he was still gaining his full mobility back and lacked any real pass catchers outside of Trey McBride it’s impressive he was able to go back to near elite status instantly. Now he’ll be more than a full year removed from his surgery and injury with a much-improved receiver core after the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. Kyler is in a great position to reclaim his mantle as one of the elite fantasy producers at his position. The biggest question mark surrounding him was how mobile he’d be after such an athleticism-robbing injury, but it looked like he’d hardly missed a step. This is my favorite bang for your buck pickup and I find myself pulling the trigger on him often if he’s available when I’m on the clock. It almost feels too good to be true that you get a player of his caliber at the price he is now.
Brock Purdy
Since before he even played a snap on the football field Brock Purdy has been counted out and looked over. Entering the league as “Mr. Irrelevant”, the last pick of the NFL draft, he evolved into a feel-good story as he captained the 49ers team to a playoff berth while going undefeated in the regular season. After suffering a near career-threatening injury on his throwing elbow many wrote him off for dead. He’s now carved out a name for himself after making a full recovery, building on his freshman campaign, and once again captaining one of the best offenses in the league. All the while he’s been one of the most efficient QBs in the league. Whether you think he’s a talentless hack who is a full beneficiary of the Shanahan system, or not it doesn’t matter as his fantasy production has not told a single lie. Even in his rookie year where many positions, QB especially, are known to start slow as they adjust to the NFL, he produced 18.1 PPG. He followed this up by producing 19.2 PPG in his second season and finished as the QB6 on the season. With the help of the best RB in the league, arguably the best TE in the league, a pair of top 20 WRs, and one of the brightest signal callers in the league there’s no reason why he can’t replicate these numbers or even surpass them. Say what you want about the situation he’s in he still has to perform and operate the offense. Taking him at value gives you plenty of wiggle room even if he does regress to say QB10. The floor that he established in his rookie year of 18.1 PPG gives me all the confidence I need in selecting him. He’s a night and day better player now than he was then, so if that’s the worst of Brock I’m excited to see his best as he continues to grow in this system going into year three.
Jayden Daniels
The 2023 Heisman is entering his rookie season as the QB15 and going around rounds 9-11. I’m not going to sit here and feed you crap about how this is a slam dunk can’t miss pick. Even at his mature price tag, he’s the most boom or bust selection on this list. The range of outcomes for a rookie QB is dangerous. The league is going through a metamorphosis though. No longer are the days of pocket-passing snipers, though we still have a good amount tearing up the league, dual-threat QBs are now “In”. Jayden Daniels boasts the highest college scramble tendency and scramble YPG since 2017. This is over names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, and Josh Allen. Should his rushing ability translate to the NFL as we’ve seen with countless before him it should provide him a nice baseline on a week-to-week basis. What gives me the confidence to make this pick is his passing ability is nothing to sneeze at either. I’ll give you an example, Daniel Jones finished as the QB9 in 2022 with 294.0 total fantasy points. His season totals? 3205 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 708 rushing yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns. That point total would have been good enough for another QB9 finish in 2023. Do your due diligence and turn on the film with Jayden Daniels and see for yourself if you believe he can hit these numbers with a sneaky talented Commanders roster. Personally, I think at WORST these are the numbers he could hit. Should he actually hit and turn into the star he has the potential to be, you’re looking at a top 5 QB at the price of a smoked sardine sandwich. With all this being said you’re probably wondering where the bust aspect comes into play because those stats from Daniel Jones were pedestrian. I’m not one to usually fade people because of injury risks unless there are glaring issues because in the game of football, anybody can get hurt, and you have to remember these are real people with top of the line health access trying to stay healthy because in most instances in the NFL if you don’t play you don’t get paid. Daniels doesn’t have an extensive injury history, that we know of, but his reckless playstyle won’t fly in the big leagues. He’s a skinny dude for league standards and if you aren’t careful you could get hurt really bad real quick. I’m sure his coaches have had a sit down with him about this, but when you’re out on the field it’s hard to fight your competitive instincts. Of course, there’s also the chance he’s a bust and doesn’t even hit 2022 Daniel Jones stat lines. Or, he could play all 17 and absolutely ball out.
Matthew Stafford
Introducing my favorite break in case of emergency QB of 2023, Matthew Stafford. You can ask anybody with a smidgen of credibility and they’ll tell you Matthew Stafford is one of the handful of truly elite QBs in the league. Yet, he’s going as the QB20 off-boards and you can grab him in rounds 12-14. In standard 15-round leagues that’s one of the very last picks you can select a cream of the crop QB. He’s 36 and is coming off a pretty uninspiring season. Nonetheless, he finished as the QB15. Stafford has been playing in the league since 2009 and the last time he had a QB20 finish while playing the whole season was, let me double check my notes for this, oh never. No, I’m not trying to sell you on a borderline top 15-20 QB. He’s shown no signs of slowing down unless he was hindered by injury. As of the time of this article being written, he is dealing with a light hamstring problem, but this isn’t Lamar Jackson we’re talking about. Nobody is holding their breath if Matthew Stafford at age 36 is a little less mobile. He started off this previous season a bit slow and through the first half of the season, and if you watched the film the entire offense really wasn’t able to establish themselves. It appeared to me that with the sudden emergence of Puka Nacua as a superstar the team was struggling to find a role for both him and Cooper Kupp. After their bye week, the offense appeared to stabilize, and Matthew Stafford took off. From their bye week to week 17, Stafford was the QB7 and was averaging 19.4 PPG. He’s dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his long career, and he’s at an advanced football age which is a bad combination. If you’re selecting a QB this late though I hate to tell you, but it’s slim pickings. Since joining Sean McVay and the Rams he’s played three seasons and has played two all the way through. He didn’t technically play all of last season, but we missed one actual game, and the Rams sat their starters in the final game of the season so I’m counting it. His first season there he was the QB5. The second season he couldn’t finish the season after suffering a spinal cord contusion and he finished as the QB32 through 9 games. It’s been up and down since he’s gotten to LA, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. He has two of the best receivers in the league, an HC who was and is regarded as an offensive genius, and a talented RB behind him. A bottom of the barrel defense just lost its best player in first ballot HoFer Aaron Donald, so you know they’re going to have to put up points. This concoction is like a mix of Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy with a dash of old age. Good fantasy football production comes when talent meets opportunity, and you won’t have to look hard for it because there’s ample here.
Kirk Cousins [Kirko Chainz]
The face of the upper middle-class of quarterbacks. Proud owner of a singular playoff win in twelve accrued seasons in the National Football League. Pioneer for future player contracts as the first and only player to sign not one, not two, but three fully guaranteed contracts. Owner of seven 4k passing yard seasons through eight straight seasons. Receiver with the nickname “PrimeTime Kirk”, but not for good reasons. Hate him or love him, Kirk Cousins simply produces. Through his 9 years as a starter, he has four QB10 or better finishes. From earliest to most recent it’s QB10, QB5, QB6, and a final QB6 in 2022. From 2018 to 2021 it’s QB13, QB19, and back-to-back QB11 seasons. The lone finish outside the top 13 in 2019 where he finished as the QB19, the Vikings only passed the ball 444 times which is a career low for him in that category. It’s hard to produce elite numbers with that level of volume, so he gets a minor pass from me personally. Outside of that blip, he’s been a consistent fantasy producer at the position. Much like Matthew Stafford though, he’s also reaching an advanced football age at 35. He’s also coming off an Achilles injury, which at any age, is difficult to come back from. Reports from camp have been good on him, so barring any unforeseen setbacks he’ll be a full go for week 1. He’s going at QB19 and is available in rounds 12-14. I view Kirk as a break in case of emergency for my break in case of emergency. The stigma that Kirk Cousins is an average QB paired with the fact that he’s on a new team in a new system, and throw in that he’s 35 coming off an achilles. It makes sense why he’s going so low. He has a nice young stable of talent around him in Atlanta, and a rookie QB who he’s trying to fend off. There may be some friction since the Falcons, after signing him to a 4-year deal, drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the 1st round of the draft. The fans and the team at some point will want to see the rookie on the field, but I suspect Kirk has a good two seasons IF he plays at a high level. Nothing lights a fire under people like a constant threat to their very high-paying job. If Kirk wants to continue to get paid whether it be by the Falcons or his next team he’ll make sure to continue having the success that brought him here.
Will Levis
If you find yourself in the final round of the draft and all your QB targets have been selected. I have quite the hail mary play for you. This is the selection where when you click “DRAFT” you say “F*** It”. I can’t sit here and hype the man up because, in his first and only season in the NFL, he didn’t exactly stuff the stat sheet. His one notable stat sheet game came in his very first start when he threw for 230 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Falcons. He looked like a rookie for much of the season, but it’s to be expected from a 2nd round pick at QB. If you want a single game from the season to watch to sell you on him, it’s week 14 against the Dolphins. He didn’t light up the stat sheet, but he showed flashes of what could be, which is all you need from a rookie. The few highs weren’t very high and the lows were low, but from what I’ve seen the kid’s got potential. Specifically, big play potential, which is a fantasy money maker. The Titans added Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard in an attempt to rebuild the roster’s identity post Derrick Henry. They also brought in Brian Callahan who served as the Bengals OC since 2019. It’s his success with Joe Burrow and their offense that landed him the job. Truly elite QBs can elevate the level of talent around them, but the same can be said for a great supporting cast. Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins aren’t spring chickens, but they’re still both high-quality WRs. DeAndre Hopkins who is at the tail-end of his career previously stated that at this point of his career, he doesn’t want to play with a young QB. Even through the struggles he earned Hopkins’ respect and seal of approval. I’m not expecting a top 10 or even top 12 finish from Levis, but if you select him in the final rounds of the draft and he produces a top 15 season you’d be a happy camper.
Trying to draft the right QB can be stressful, but hopefully, this article was able to give you some clarity about what direction you want to go. Your targets will get snatched from you, so be prepared to pivot. QB is the most unpredictable position to target. If you’ve played fantasy football for more than two years you already know people do weird things when it comes to selecting quarterbacks. Draft season is coming up so remember to draft smart and be confident in who you choose because you can only start one of these guys at a time. Make sure it’s a hill you’re comfortable dying on. And if you’re drafting a QB late, always double up to increase your hit rate.
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