Biggest Fantasy Riser
Kev White: Kenyan Drake. The David Johnson - Nuk Hopkins trade was a double win for Drake. A potential messy backfield situation was cleared up, leaving an ideal pathway to success in front of him. With the addition of Hopkins it's a 'rising tide lifts all boats' type of outcome - where his presence opens up the field in both the run & pass game for Drake, plus provides more TD opportunity within a better offense than 2019. With these offseason moves, it puts Drake firmly in play for the lead role in a top offense and a top 10 fantasy season is well within his range.
Parker McDonald: This might be a hot take, but it's Josh Allen. He now has true WR1 in Diggs. John Brown was solid in his first year with Buffalo and will make a great complimentary piece playing opposite Diggs. Beasley will continue to get his out of the slot and fills out the best receiving corp Allen has had. Allen loves to sling the ball deep, and Diggs, along with Brown, will give him one the best deep threat tandems in the league. He finished inside the top 10 last season and with the addition of Diggs to the offense he has top five potential. I am very excited to see this offense next season.
Rich Causier: The obvious answer here is Kenyan Drake and I'd be foolish not to mention him but this does come with a note of caution. Drake owners should breathe a sigh of relief as signing on the transition tag keeps him in the best possible fantasy situation and his range of outcomes include an RB1 finish.
Is he the biggest Fantasy Riser? Yes.
Will be I drafting him at his current ADP? Not on your life.
I cannot trust a guy who has never exceeded 20 carries in a game in his professional career to be my RB1. I would be taking Chase Edmonds in the double digit rounds and looking to sell Kenyan Drake in Dynasty whilst his value is this hot.
Shane Barrett: Kyler Murray. He now has a #1 receiver that isn't over the hill (sorry Larry). Murray gaining Nuk and having Kenyan in the backfield consistently is going to be huge for him. People are predicting him to come in right behind Lamar and Mahomes and I agree with them. His rushing ability gives him a great floor for fantasy purposes, and then they added talent or kept talent around him. He should have a stellar season thanks to the acquistion of Hopkins and being able to spread the ball to him, Fitz, Kirk and Kenyan.
FF Spotlight: The biggest fantasy riser post free agency, in my opinion is Tom Brady. It's totally cliche, but he has upgraded his surround skill players exponentially. Look for him near the top 12 QBs in 2020.
Biggest Fantasy Faller
Kev White: Curtis Samuel. Free agency has been double trouble for Samuel, with the additions of Teddy Bridgewater & Robby Anderson. The risk averse, game-manager type, Teddy B is a poor fit for Samuel's field stretching role. This also ties in with the addition of Anderson - a player who wins in the same area of the field as Samuel. We know that Samuel can be utilised as a diverse weapon near the line of scrimmage, however even in that scenario he would be battling for targets with RB1 Christian McCaffrey & the ever-popular breakout TE Ian Thomas.
Rich Causier: Broncos RB - What an atrocious piece of business it was from the Broncos to sign Melvin Gordon for 2 years/$16 Million. Waste of money that could have been better spent on needs elsewhere.
Melvin Gordon's efficiency numbers on his return in 2019 fell off a cliff and he never exceeded 54% snap share albeit some of this can be attributed to his hold-out to start of season. He joins a team with a second year QB trying to find his feet and shares a backfield with a much better pure runner in Lindsay.
Philip Lindsay has rushed for over 2000 yards in his first 2 years in the league and is 9th overall in rushing yards since the beginning of 2018 and the arrival of Gordon has torpedoed Lindsay's value. The best we can hope for in this situation is that Lindsay's ADP falls rapidly which would still make him a value pick at the right price as we know he will make the most of the opportunities he does get.
Shane Barrett: I'm going to go a little outside the box here and go Darren Waller. For some odd reason the Raiders signed TWO veteran TEs, Jason Witten and Nick O'Leary. And they still don't have a true #1 WR which they will likely draft. Hunter Renfrow is still there as well and Waller's numbers already dropped when Renfrow or Tyrell Williams were on the field, so adding to the TE room has added a problem for Mr. Waller. He would be someone I would watch as a faller especially with where he finished as a TE1 last year.
FF Spotlight: The biggest fantasy faller is Jordan Howard. Miami is in a massive rebuild with questions all over the team. He will likely have to play with Fitzpatrick and a future rookie QB. I think he will see 8 men in the box frequently and his production with suffer.
Stefon Diggs Value: Up or Down?
Rich Causier: Value Up, remains to be seen by how much. I was happy with any move that got him out of Minnesota this offseason. Diggs made the most of his opportunities in 2019 despite a run heavy scheme in one of the worst passing offenses in the league (The Vikings ranked 30th in expected passing points).
Despite this, Diggs finished 4th in Fantasy Points over Expectation last season making the most of the opportunities he was given. A lot here depends on how the Bills use him. My thoughts are that you do not give up the sort of capital they have if they don't plan on making him the focal point of the offense. In order to hammer home the increase in value, Josh Allen needs to take the next step and with one of the best route runners in the league, I believe he can and will.
FF Spotlight: Diggs' value goes up. I always viewed Diggs and Thielen as two alphas fighting for the same role. Neither can win at one time. Watch for Diggs to slide into the WR1 role on the team. He will get increased targets and will make the most of them.
JetPack Galileo: Value Up. Diggs can be the true #1 here and we can dare to hope for Josh Allen's continued evolution. Whether Josh takes the next step or not, Diggs is the Bills best offensive weapon since 2016's LeSean McCoy.
Austin Hooper Value: Up or Down?
Kev White: Value Down. Hooper moves from a consistent top 3 pass volume team, to one that's recently appointed a head coach from a run-based scheme in Minnesota. Hooper is a relatively average talent and benefited largely from Dirk Koetter's TE-friendly scheme. Last season Hooper was on pace for 119 targets, I think he'll be lucky to approach 100 targets this season. Hooper's arrow is firmly pointing down - you should try to sell on the back of his strong 2019 as its likely his career year for fantasy.
Rich Causier: Value WAY Down. I mentioned on the Ballers Pod last week that the Hooper signing is good for Baker Mayfield, but Hooper has left one of the most consistent offenses in the league in Atlanta and joined an unstable Browns team. I do expect Baker Mayfield and his offense to improve in 2020 but there are a LOT of mouths to feed in Cleveland with Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb.
Hooper is not a field stretcher nor does he excel in yards after the catch. His excellent fantasy return in Atlanta came from volume and i don't believe he will get anywhere close to the same opportunity with the Browns.
Shane Barrett: Value Down. I love this move from a football standpoint because it gives my boy Baker another weapon and blocker. Conklin will help that too. Baker is going to have so many options to throw to, and still get Chubb and Hunt their carries. Naturally his volume is going to go down, so unless he can become UBER efficient I think he will take a tick down in value as well.
DeAndre Hopkins Value: Up or Down?
Parker McDonald: Down, a little. He won't be seeing a 30% target share in Arizona, but he joins arguably a better offense with the likes of Murray, Kirk, Fitzgerald, and Drake. While Murray is a downgrade from Watson, the offense is not. Kirk will help keep defenses honest, along with the running threat Murray presents, which in turn will help Hopkins do what he does best.
Rich Causier: Down. Let me make one thing clear, this is an awesome move by the Cardinals that only increases Kyler Murray's ceiling further. There's no doubt that Hopkins will still be a WR1 going forward however his days of receiving a 30% target share are behind him.
JetPack Galileo: Value Up. Watson is fantastic. Murray has the potential to be even better. I'm not worried one bit about the way the Cardinals spread the ball around last season. That's what you do when no one wants to make plays. Now they have their guy and I expect Hopkins and Murray to make sweet music for the rest of his career.
David Johnson Dynasty Buy or Sell:
Late 1st Round Rookie Pick
Kev White: SMASH Sell. David Johnson owners should absolutely be making the most of this golden opportunity and move an ageing asset that looked a shell of his former self in 2019. He is in line for great volume in 2020, however he is beyond the age apex, will play behind a poor OL and is a ticking timebomb close to breakdown. The great news for owners is the name value and the expected role in 2020. Even if you're close to a Championship - you could find similar players with less risk at this cost, such as Marlon Mack or David Montgomery.
Rich Causier: If someone offered a first round pick for David Johnson i'd be pulling the FBI in to investigate. One chink of hope for DJ is that one of the most inefficient and uninspiring running backs in the league in Carlos Hyde compiled his first 1000 yard season with this Houston offense and finished as RB28 despite catching very few passes. Johnson could put in sone reasonable performances and may even hit RB1 numbers from time to time but for a late first I would pass every day of the week as I have no faith he can stay healthy.
Shane Barrett: SELL SELL SELL. I do not trust DJ even in his new environment and would not pay a first round pick for him. I know he still has the potential to get back to what he was, but there is a reason the Cardinals cut ties with him and his new GM and coach is clearly a genius. If the price were lower, I might buy, but absolutely not for a 1st.
JetPack Galileo: Buy. I don't mind taking a shot at a season or two of RB1 potential. Winning a fantasy championship requires depth of talent, and I'd rather take a lead back than a backup wideout.
Tom Brady Dynasty Buy or Sell:
Early 4th Round Rookie Pick
Parker McDonald: Buy. If you are in a SuperFlex with a team that is in win-now mode and needs a starter for at least a season, then a fourth is nothing for a starter that will get you solid numbers. He's in a system now with two potential WR1 candidates in Evans and Godwin. Godwin will take on the Edelman role, and he will have a much better tight end situation in Howard and Brate.
Rich Causier: Buy. As someone who treats 4th round picks as throw ins, this would be a no brainer for someone needing a short term fix at QB if they are close to a Championship. He just got a major upgrade in weapons and I expect to see Chris Godwin play a similar role to Julian Edelman. Brady could be in the QB1 conversation in 2020. If I'm a Mike Evans owner though, I'm sobbing in to my Jameis Winston onesie.
Shane Barrett: I will try not to let my fandom get in the way here because I cannot stand TB12. However, for an early 4th, I am smashing the buy option here. Who knows if TB12 will be the same QB in Tampa. But, for that price you have to take your shot because you could get TB12 of old. So, I'm buying the GOAT even though it hurts me to call him that.
JetPack Galileo: Buy. TB12 is old, but he was old last season when he finished as QB12 with basically no weapons beyond limited availability Edelman. If they get a quality pass-catching tailback to go along with their arsenal of vertical weapons, I expect the QB1 seasons to continue.
