Image by Nick Penticoff
Biggest Offseason Riser
Photo: Mark J. Rebilas USA Today
FF_Spotlight: Kyler Murray has been the biggest offseason riser. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins, signing of Kenyan Drake, and the departure of David Johnson has skyrocketed Murray's value. He will have numerous targets and opportunities to scramble.
Kev White: Hayden Hurst has been a huge riser this offseason - moving from the shadow of future stud Mark Andrews to the Dirk Koetter offense, known as a TE Factory. He jumps straight into the Austin Hooper vacancy, which came with a cool 7.45 targets a game in 2019. The movement from irrelevant fantasy backup to potential top 5 TE is well within his range of outcomes for the 2020 season.
MattFFDynasty: Kenyan Drake - Following on from his trade from Miami to Arizona, Drake finished as the RB4 from Week 9-17. He has since signed his transition tender and with only Chase Edwards and 7th round pick Eno Benjamin behind him in the depth chart, following David Johnson trade to the Texans, Drake has a great opportunity to be a top 10 RB in this fantasy-friendly backfield.
Zach Zander: Miles Sanders has moved all the way up to RB11 this offseason. He was rising near the end of last season but once the Eagles neither drafted nor signed an RB this offseason, the hype has skyrocketed.
Biggest Offseason Faller
Zach Zander: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers got him no weapons in the draft or free agency and by drafting Jordan Love, they are ready for a new chapter sooner than he deserves.
Kev White: Marlon Mack's value took a beating in the short term with the drafting of future star RB Jonathan Taylor. Mack will go from the lead guy on a potentially strong offense to nothing more than a change of pace/split backfield. I do like his talent enough to land another job in free agency next offseason, but he cannot be drafted as a starter in seasonal leagues.
Parker McDonald: O.J. Howard would have been on my riser list with the arrival of Tom Brady, but he ends up on the fallers list thanks to the other new addition, Rob Gronkowski. Howard could still be fantasy relevant if the Bucs end up trading him, but for now he's in playing second fiddle to Gronk, with a coach who doesn't use the tight end.
MattFFDynasty: Phillip Lindsay - The fairytale sadly seems to be coming to an end for Lindsay. His days of being an RB2 with upside now appear to be a thing of the past with Melvin Gordan arriving during free agency. Gordan may now be the first option for Denver when it comes to receiving work as well as goal-line work and also eat into Lindsay's carries.
Nick Penticoff: OBJ - For some reason Odell Beckham Jr. has a current averaged ADP of 30th overall and as the WR10. OBJ has a chance to be the WR1 when fully healthy. He played the most snaps of any skill player on his team on the offensive side of the ball despite having a sports hernia injury. Before Odell was injured and missed 12 games and then finishing his time in NY playing with the shell of Eli Manning, he was averaging 1,374 receiving yards, and 11 TDs over his first three seasons.
Average Draft Position Bust
Photo: NBC Sports
MattFFDynasty: A.J Brown - Despite loving the talent, I think an ADP of WR16 is a touch too high for me. During his rookie season, Brown was highly efficient with his opportunities by turning only 52 receptions into 1051 yds and 8 TDs. It will be hard to keep up that efficiency in 2020 with opposing defenses been more clued up on Brown and being on a run-first offense could cap his upside.
Kev White: Rob Gronkowski at TE8 is way too rich for me. Obviously the TE landscape is consistently changing & you don't have to be great to sneak into a TE1 spot, but we're talking about a guy who looked broken before his retirement in 2019. Combine that with the Bruce Arians offense that crushes TE production & legit target monsters in Godwin / Evans - Gronk will not be on any of my rosters.
Parker McDonald: Aaron Jones is going early in the second round, as RB11 off the board. With touchdown regression coming, Jones will still have a solid fantasy finish, but not for where you are drafting him. LaFleur still won't fully commit to Jones, and adding AJ Dillion to the backfield could muddy things up even more. As much as I love Jones, I won't take him here.
FF_Spotlight: Odell Beckham Jr. is going to bust his ADP this year. Laundry outplayed him last year and they were both injured. Odds are they flip flop ADP and Jarvis finishes ahead of him again.
Nick Sarnelli: A.J. Brown - half of his fantasy production came in 4 games last season. Even with greater target volume his efficiency will be hard to replicate.
Zach Zander: Amari Cooper. His ADP is WR8 and though he may be a top 8 talent, his inconsistency coupled with the fact that the Cowboys added more weapons this offseason will make him an ADP bust. Even if he ends up as a top 12 WR, the weeks where he burns you will make the price not worth it.
Average Draft Position Value
Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press
Kev White: Teddy Bridgewater at QB25 is laughable. There seems to be a ton of lazy analysis in the industry, basing his projections on where he's been playing ball-control offense throughout his career. His situation is different here, the Panthers D is poor - leading to pass-heavy gamescripts & he has some of the best RAC players in the league. He is the ideal late late round QB in redraft.
Parker McDonald: Michael Gallup is being drafted in the 8th round (WR33). If you can grab him there it's a steal. CeeDee Lamb won't come in and steal targets away from Gallup. Jason Witten and Randall Cobb leave over 80 targets vacant, and if Lamb sees all of them it won't affect Gallup (or Cooper for that matter). He could be a low-end WR3, but I think he will most likely end up as a low-end WR2.
FF_Spotlight: Todd Gurley going in the 5th round of Superflex leagues right now is so low because of health concerns. I recall people dropping him really low on draft boards after his down season with the Rams only to explode the next year. He's risky, but there is a high chance he is a value at his current ADP.
MattFFDynasty: Jarvis Landry - Landry is constantly undervalued, this year with an ADP of WR30. Landry has been ultra-consistent during his NFL career and finished as a Top 20 WR for the last 5 years in PPR leagues. If the Cleveland offense and Baker Mayfield take a step forward in 2020, then Landry should outperform his ADP yet again.
Nick Penticoff: Jamison Crowder - Jamison Crowder is currently being drafted 116th overall and as the WR47. The wideout will be 27 years old this season, the same age as OBJ, Hopkins, and Michael Thomas. He finished as the WR26 last season. Crowder saw 122 targets last yeah and is one of the only a few returning skill players on offense that already has a rapport with Darnold.
Nick Sarnelli: Will Fuller- With Hopkins being traded to Arizona, its likely Fuller should see some more targets. Even with the addition of Brandon Cooks and Randall Cobb, Fuller already has chemistry with Deshawn Watson. Health will always be a major concern but if he can stay healthy he will have a great opportunity to outproduce his current ADP.
Zach Zander: Hayden Hurst as the TE18 is great value. He has been given a big role in an offense but the void left by Hooper is massive and I think he has the ability to be a top 10 TE.