Week 13 Fantasy Football Start/Sit & Waivers
It's Week 13 and we are at the crucial stage of the season where we are making that final push for a fantasy playoff spot. Making the correct calls on your start/sit decisions are essential and @K_H_Ray, @ZTwiceFF, & @MattFFDynasty are here to help by giving you some of their top starts and sits for this weeks action.
Quarterback
Starts
Start Of The Week
Derek Carr Vs WAS (@K_H_RAY)
Carr, like the Raiders, can be a bit unpredictable at times, but he's coming off a good game against the Cowboys where he passed for 373 yards and a touchdown. This week the Raiders have a great matchup against the Washington Football Team. No other team has given up more points per game to fantasy QBs than the WFT has this season. Expect number 4 to air it out early and often.
Kirk Cousins @ DET (@ZTwiceFF)
Captain Kirk had some questionable plays last week against the 49ers but still came through with a solid fantasy week as he has all season. This week against the Lions, I expect another solid week with upside. Dalvin Cook is out and though Alexander Mattison is a solid replacement, the VIkings likely will look to throw more against a Lions defense that just gave up over 300 yards to Andy Dalton.
Carson Wentz @ HOU (@MattFFDynasty)
Carson Wentz has looked like a completely different player from the QB we saw towards the end of his stint in Philly. Playing behind one of the best O-Lines in football, Wentz is currently the QB11 and has been far more efficient with 21 TDs and just 5 INTs. He's coming off an impressive outing vs TB where, despite throwing 2 INTs, he threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs. This week he goes up against HOU who are a middle-of-the-road defense against opposing QBs and I expect Wentz to carry on his good form.
Sits
Sit of the Week
Trevor Lawrence @ LAR (@ZTwiceFF)
Last week against Atlanta, Lawrence had one of his better fantasy outings after having 3 single digit fantasy outings prior. This week he is playing the Rams in LA in a very tough matchup. There is the possibility of a solid fantasy outing based on sheer volume due to the likely defecit, but he should be played only in desperation.
Joe Burrow Vs LAC (@MattFFDynasty)
Burrow made a strong start to the season and by Week 8 he was sitting as the QB8. However, his form has dropped over the last few games, mainly because CIN have been leaning heavily on RB Joe Mixon, and he's been dominant. This has resulted in Burrow's FPPG dropping from 20.7 (between Weeks 1-8) to just 14.2 FPPG over his last 3 games. Sadly, I can't see that changing this week going up against a strong LAC pass defense who are allowing the 6th least FPPG to opposing QBs. They are far more beatable on the ground, so I expect CIN to stick with what's been working and give Joe Mixon another heavy workload in this one.
Mac Jones @ BUF (@K_H_RAY)
Mac Jones has not yet emerged as a high end fantasy streamer this season, and with Buffalo and a bye to finish out the fantasy regular season, we may have to wait until 2022. He is coming off his highest passing yard total of the season with 310 against the Titans. Still, the matchup with Buffalo is much too big a barrier for this fantasy analyst to consider in their starting lineup. Buffalo is numero uno vs opposing QBs. Facing them this week, a bye, then Indy, then Buffalo again?! Mac, lets talk next year.
Running Back
Starts
Start Of The Week
Antonio Gibson @ LV (@MattFFDynasty)
What an emotional rollercoaster it's been for anyone with Gibson on their fantasy rosters. He's been dealing with a shin fracture for most of the season and saw his snap% decrease as a result before WAS bye week on Week 9. However, since then Gibson has looked back to his best with WAS giving him a HUGE workload over the last 3 weeks (72 carries resulting in 270 yards and 2 TDs). He now faces a Raiders defense who are definitely beatable on the ground and have allowed an average of 126 rushing yards per game. JD McKissic is going to continue to be a thorn in his side and eat into his receiving opportunity, but Gibson is back to being a solid starter in fantasy football.
Jamaal Williams Vs MIN (@ZTwiceFF)
Williams has been a solid fantasy asset at times splitting time this year with D'Andre Swift. Dan Campbell said Swift is likely to miss a couple of weeks, leaving the majority of the snaps to Williams. He's a good RB with now a large rushing share, along with his solid pass catching out of the backfield. Williams is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside this week against the Vikings.
Darrell Henderson Vs JAX (@K_H_RAY)
Henderson will be looking to have back to back solid performances this week against the Jaguars. While he wasn't super efficient, Henderson saw 20 total touches against the Packers including 4 receptions and a score. He continues to be the clear number 1 out of the backfield for the Rams and I expect him to have another good day against Jacksonville who just let Elijah Mitchell run all over them (133 yards; 4.9 per carry).
Sits
Sit of the Week
Damien Harris @ BUF (@MattFFDynasty)
After naming Harris as a sit last week, I'm doubling down and going with him again. He saved his 11 carries for 40-yard performance with a TD last week but it was a tough game for him, where he continued to split work with both Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden. I expect that to continue and now he faces a strong BUF run defense. Don't let what the physical beast Jonathan Taylor did to this defense the other week fool you, it's one of the best run defenses in the league and it should be a long evening for Harris on MNF.
Saquon Barkley @ MIA (@K_H_RAY)
Of course fantasy managers who have waited weeks and weeks for the return of Saquon aren't about to bench him. But it's reasonable to lower expectations. Since his return from injury in Week 11, Barkley has just 20.9 fantasy points and hasn't been an efficient rusher all season. It doesn't help that the Giants' offense has struggled as well. Now the G-Men travel to Miami to take on the 5th best defense against opposing RBs, and will likely be without Daniel Jones. Much of his 2021 value has come from his work in the passing game, and he'll still be a solid check-down option for Mike Glennon this weekend, but his upside has diminished. This week Barkley is an RB2 in a tough matchup.
David Montgomery Vs ARI (@ZTwiceFF)
Since returning from injury, Montgomery has yet to eclipse 10 PPR points depsite playing over 85% of the snaps. He has not been involved in the passing game and has not had many redzone opportunities due to the Bears low scoring offense. Against a good Arizona defense, Monty is nothing more than a flex play.
Wide Receiver
Starts
Start Of The Week
Marquise Brown @ PIT (@K_H_RAY)
Can we talk about Hollywood Brown real quick? Labeled as a run-first team, it can be easy to forget that Baltimore has some seriously talented pass catchers. Over the last 4 games, Hollywood is averaging ~12 targets and just under 8 receptions per game. That's really good volume. Even though the efficiency isn't always there, he's their number one option in the passing game and is always a threat for a big play downfield. This week the Ravens visit the Steelers who rank in the bottom half of the league against opposing WRs. Dial up Hollywood for this big AFC North matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk @ SEA (@ZTwiceFF)
After a dissappointing start to the 2021 season, since week 8 Aiyuk has been solid as the third target in this offense. Deebo Samuel is out this week in Seattle, leaving a lot of vacated targets. Brandon Aiyuk was the leading receiver for San Fran last week and his upside is high this week. He exploded at the end of last season and it’s highly possible that it happens again over the next couple weeks with Deebo out.
Hunter Renfrow Vs WAS (@MattFFDynasty)
Renfrow is currently having the best season of his career so far, already topping his targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TDs stats that he had in all of 2020. With Darren Waller likely out this week, after injuring his knee last week, Renfrow should solidify himself as Derek Carr's top weapon in a favorable matchup vs WAS. He will have a strong floor with his pass usage and then has the TD upside considering WAS have allowed the most receiving TDs in the NFL through 12 weeks. Start Renfrow with confidence again this week.
Sits
Sit of the Week
Elijah Moore Vs PHI (@ZTwiceFF)
I am ready to be burned by this sit call but I honestly just cannot trust Zach Wilson up until this point. Philly has a solid pass defense and Moore has yet to have a good week with Wilson under center. He has the chance to play well due to volume, but until I see a good game with Wilson it is hard to have any confidence starting a Jets weapon.
Marvin Jones @ LAR (@MattFFDynasty)
Don't be fooled by the 'likely larger opportunity' for Jones, following Dan Arnold being added to IR, and go chasing that potential increased volume in this matchup. Jones will be facing former Jags star CB Jalen Ramsey for most of the afternoon and you know he will be up for this revenge game. QB Trevor Lawrence likely won't have much time in the pocket either having to contend with Aaron Donald hunting him down every play. I'd fade all Jags pass-catching options this week given the matchup.
Tyler Boyd Vs LAC (@K_H_RAY)
It's been hard to know when to start Boyd and when to avoid him. He has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in 6 of 11 games this season and his targets have been just as inconsistent. This week the Bengals face the Chargers, who are ranked 2nd best against opposing WRs, and are particularly good against the slot. I'm avoiding the former Pitt Panther this week.
Tight End
Starts
Start Of The Week
Pat Freiermuth Vs BAL (@K_H_RAY)
How to pick a breakout TE 101: Look for whoever is playing the Ravens. Forget for a moment that Freiermuth has 5 touchdowns over the last 5 games, or that he has the second most RedZone looks for TEs this season. The Ravens rank as the 29th best defense against opposing TEs and continue to be a great matchup for the position. Big Ben seems to be relying on the rookie TE more and more. I don't think that ends this week, in a game where the Steelers will need to give everything they've got to save their season.
Logan Thomas @ LV (@ZTwiceFF)
After missing 7 weeks with a Hamstring injury, Thomas returned this week playing 79% of the snaps and receiving 6 targets. He had a TD called back on top of that which would have boosted his mediocre fantasy output. This week in Las Vegas he should receive a high target volume and has TD potential with his redzone targets.
Jack Doyle @ HOU (@MattFFDynasty)
It's taken a while, but Jack Doyle now seems to have emerged as Carson Wentz TE of choice. We know the success he's had with his TE during his time in Philly and Doyle put in his best performance of the season last week with 6 receptions for 81 yards and 1 TD. He's actually had 17 targets over the last 3 weeks and should that continue then he'll be in line for another strong week against HOU, who are allowing an average of 11.9 fantasy points to opposing TEs. Outside of the usual strong TE candidates, Doyle is a sneaky streamable option this week.
Sits
Sit of the Week
Gerald Everett Vs SF (@ZTwiceFF)
Everett has had 8+ targets in 2 of the last 3 weeks producing as a solid TE1. Prior to the week 10 bye he had not received more than 3 targets in all but 1 game in which he had 5. The Seattle offense could be changing but it is tough to imagine they limit Metcalf to only 1 target again. The volume is tough to trust and for that reason I am sitting Everett.
Hunter Henry @ BUF (@K_H_RAY)
The touchdown machine has slowed down in recent weeks. Henry has scored over 10 points in just 1 of the last 5 games and has been pretty touchdown dependent. He's averaging just over 3 receptions per game, and one of them needs to go for a score to mean anything in the fantasy production department. Facing the 5th ranked Bills defense this week isn't likely to help the situaiton. Henry is always a threat in the RedZone, but I'm focusing my attention elsewhere for TE help this week.
Dawson Knox Vs NE (@MattFFDynasty)
Knox is in the middle of a breakout season and currently sits as the TE8 after scoring 7 TDs in the 9 games he's played this season. However, the concern is that he's not had a strong level of volume, with just 31 receptions and topping 50 yards just twice this season, and that makes him volatile at times. This week I expect Bill Belichick to focus on stopping Josh Allen's top 2 weapons in Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox, something he tends to do well, and Knox will likely be TD dependant once again this week. Given the state of the TE position, you're unlikely to sit Knox, but if you are starting him then at least temper expectations this week.
Waiver Recap
CLICK HERE if you missed Tuesday's waiver article - Waiver Stargazing
Thanks for reading. Be sure to keep an eye out for both our weekly articles, Tuesday Waiver Targets & Thursday Start/Sit and Waiver Recap with the@FF_Astronauts. Follow@K_H_Ray,@ZTwiceFF, &@MattFFDynasty on Twitter for more Fantasy Football content throughout the season, and hit us up with any of your Start/Sit or Waiver questions.
