@FF_Spotlight Week 1 of the NFL in any normal year can be a crap shoot. Mix in the Corona Virus, no rookie camps, no preseason, a significantly reduced training camp and what do you get? Lots of uncertainty!
There are an enormous amount of ways to look at building a roster in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). DraftKings and FanDuel are two of the largest DFS communities out there.
Checkout the FF Astronauts weekly for a DFS column covering positional discussions, lineup creation and weekly data. This primer article sets a baseline for DFS that will be referenced through the weekly columns and provides new DFS players with a framework for setting their lineups.
HOW MANY POINTS ARE REQUIRED TO WIN?
On average, the minimum threshold for a winning GPP lineup is 157 points.
First place in a main slate tournament could go over 200 points.
Looking at point targets to get in the cash...
157 points overall, with a 5 point scoring defense has each player scoring:
157 - 5 = 152 / 8 players = 19.0 points per player
Assuming a $3700 defense scores 5 points, the cash per player
$46,300 / 8 players = ~$5800 / player
Consider a 157 point roster for the projection in points from DraftKings experts as a baseline.
$50,000 / 157 points = $318 per point
For the baseline, if you take a $4000 point player on a 157 point projection that player should score:
$4000 / $318 per point = 12.6 points
Projections are not for average weekly performance, but expect an exceptional performance in that given week only.
A valuable player is one that exceeds their baseline projection. Let’s look at a case study for roster construction using cash per point concepts.
With all the hype for Christian McCaffrey we will start by adding him to the team first. Based on a 157 point roster as a baseline for DraftKings projections and McCaffrey’s $10,000 valuation an average performance would be 31.4 points ($318 per point).
Taking out an average defense of $2800, expected to score 5 points, leaves a remaining salary of $37,200 with 35 points covered by McCaffrey and the defense.
The remainder of the salary will need to account for 120.6 points over the 7 roster spots for $37,200 / 7 = $5300 per player.
The table below lists top players for week 1 with their salaries and baseline points
Breaking out projections based on DraftKings prices is a good tool for finding player values at all salary costs.
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