Welcome to the FF_Astronauts weekly DFS column.
This column covers DFS, DraftKings, analysis for the NFL through the 2020 season.
The column will cover values picks, must have players, bust players and key positional players each week from Nathan McGuire, Alex Edwards and FF_Spotlight.
Each author posts their best line ups from the week before, and lessons learned from the previous week.
Data will be accumulated through the season and will be used for analytics that will be discussed regularly.
The authors will also go head to head in DraftKings to determine which analyst is the most trustworthy.
Value Picks
Adam Humphries, Tennessee, $3900
Did you overspend on Elliott, Wilson and Jacobs this week? Looking for a value to balance your line up. Take a look at Adam Humphries. He is going for $3900 in DraftKings requiring him only to score 12.26 points to match his salary. In week 1 he caught six of seven targets for 47 yards (10.7 points), and in week 2 he caught five of six targets for 48 yards and a touchdown (15.8 points). Even if he doesn't score a touchdown and gets similar usage in the receiving game against a weak Minnesota defense he will be a low cost plug for rosters looking for upside with other more flashy options.
@FF_Spotlight
Don't Believe the Hype (Bust Player)
Josh Allen, Buffalo, $6,900
Josh Allen has been on a tear through the first two weeks of the NFL season, throwing for 729 yards, 6 TDs, no INTs, and averaging 35.3 points on DraftKings. So why do I see him as a bust in week 3? Well, through those first two weeks he played against relatively weak teams in the Jets and Dolphins. This week he finally gets to face a challenge against the Rams. So far this year, the Rams are ranked 1st against QBs according to DraftKings. I just don't see Josh Allen keeping up his pace this week and being worth the 3rd highest priced QB. Even though that price is nice.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Must Have Player
Dak Prescott, Dallas, $7,200
#LetRussCook has worked! Russ is cooking. Meanwhile, their defense is more porous than Spongebob Squarepants. Their defense is allowing 27.5 points, 485 total yards, and 415.5 passing yard per game through two weeks. Dak Prescott better have spent at least 8 hours in the ice bath after his 3 rushing TD performance because he may throw for 6 this week.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
QB
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee, $5,900
The Titans matchup up with the Vikings in week 3. The Vikings have shown that they are very susceptible to the pass and Tannehill aired it out last week against Jacksonville with four touchdowns. If you don’t want to spend up at quarterback, this choice should return your investment. He will need to score 18.5 points to meet his salary cost.
@FF_Spotlight
RB
Jonathan Taylor, Colts, $7,000
I had Jonathan Taylor across the board last week in DraftKings and expect to have him again this week in a high percentage as well. He looks to be the workhorse for the Colts offense and has another opportunity against a weak defense in the Jets (22nd against RBs according to DraftKings). He isn't coming at a cheap price like last week but this might be the last opportunity to use him at a price he'll outscore. I expect another 20 plus point performance out of him.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
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WR
Amari Cooper, Dallas, $6,500
Sometimes life gives you free throws, and you have to make your free throws. Seattle through two weeks is allowing 415 ypg passing. Yes; read that again. The Seattle Seahawks is allowing an average of 415 yards passing per game and are still 2-0. Dallas has as much offensive firepower as anyone in the league. Dak is going to sling it this week to the defense that just allowed Edelman to rack up 179 yards receiving. Do not miss your free throw here.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
TE
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis, $3,800
Mo Alie-Cox had a break out performance last week without scoring a touchdown. He had 111 yards on six targets with five catches. This week his salary has increased to $3,800 requiring 11.95 points to be worth the money. Jack Doyle is still injured and is possible to return this Sunday. Keep an eye of the late week injury reports, but odds are that even if Doyle is healthy that he gets eased back into play. Alie-Cox used to play college hoops at VCU. Let's see if his rebounding skills help him snag a touchdown this week.
@FF_Spotlight
DEF
Patriots, $3,200
New England had a tough time handling Russel Wilson last week, look for them to bounce back at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. I expect them to neutralize Waller and make Carr rely on his rookie WRs in the passing game. Then in the run game, New England ranks 8th best against RBs on DraftKings so far this season. For a relatively cheap price, New England should be a top-performing defense in week 3.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
LESSONS LEARNED FROM WEEK 2
Remember last season where we played whatever TE that was facing Arizona? Play whatever QB is facing Seattle.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Just because a player has a high price doesn't mean they will always be reliable, even if they have a consistent history. Had both Derrick Henry and Julio Jones in our head-to-head matchup and both scored single digits, at a combined price of $15,300.
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Beware the chalk players. They hurt many people’s rosters in Week 2 and it will be fresh in their mind going into Week 3. Expect percentages of chalk players on people’s rosters next week to go down. There might be some hidden value by going back to the chalk.
@FF_Spotlight
DATA POINT - WEEK 2
Calvin Ridley leads the NFL in TDs (4), First Downs (12), and Yards(231). Just for fun, he is on pace for a 128/1912/32 season. That is 511.2 points in PPR formats.
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
Diontae Johnson is tied for 2nd most targets (23) but is 17th in DraftKings scoring among WRs (33.9pts).
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
Most common players on 1st place rosters in NFL week 2 main slate rosters: Prescott, M. Sanders, A. Jones, C. Lamb, Ridley, J. Taylor and A. Cooper. Most teams stacked Prescott, Cooper and Lamb, finding success even with Cooper not meeting his salary.
@FF_Spotlight
BEST LINE UP - WEEK 2
QB: Dak Prescott, $6,800: 43.80pts
RB: Jonathan Taylor, $5,700: 22.00pts
RB: David Johnson, $5,800: 7.00pts
WR: Amari Cooper, $6,300: 19.00pts
WR: Michael Gallup, $5,600: 7.8pts
WR: TY Hilton, $5,700: 5.8pts
TE: Jonnu Smith, $4,200: 24.4pts
Flex: Mike Evans, $6,400: 26.4pts
DEF: Buccaneers, $2,900: 14.00pts
Budget: $49,400
Points: 170.20
Nathan McGuire, @n_mcguire95
QB: Dak Prescott, $6,800: 43.80pts
RB: Jonathan Taylor, $5,700: 22.00pts
RB: Adrian Peterson, $4,700: 4.10pts
WR: Amari Cooper, $6,300: 19.00pts
WR: Michael Gallup, $5,600: 7.80pts
WR: CeeDee Lamb, $4,700: 20.50pts
TE: Travis Kelce, $7,000: 24.00pts
Flex: Calvin Ridley, $6,800: 32.90pts
DEF: Giants, $2,400: 9.00pts
Budget: $50,000
Points: 183.10
Alex Edwards, @ItsDraftSzn
QB: Dak Prescott, $6,800: 43.8pts
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, $8,200: 23.20pts
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $7,400: 13.00pts
RB: Calvin Ridley, $6,800: 32.90pts
WR: CeeDee Lamb, $4,700: 20.50pts
WR: Dionte Johnson, $4,500: 23.20pts
TE: Dallas Goedert, $5,000: 7.00pts
FLEX: James Robinson, $4,400: 24.00pts
DEF: Jets, $2,000: 4.00pts
Budget: $49,800
Points: 191.60
@FF_Spotlight
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - WEEK 2
Nathan McGuire: 146.10
Alex Edwards: 140.24
@FF_Spotlight: 103.00
HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS - SEASON LONG
Nathan McGuire: 4pts
Alex Edwards: 2pts
@FF_Spotlight: 0pts
