• Wardy

Josh Allen - The Herdler


Herdler;

Noun - Herding Buffalo's while hurdling defenders.


Josh Allen entered the NFL as the 7th overall pick in the 2018 draft. He went to a Buffalo franchise desperate to get their QB that will take them to the Playoffs and beyond. So just how has Josh Allen started?


In 2019 he mustered only 3,089 passing yards, which left him 23rd overall. He only completed 58.80% of his throws, which was the worst (32nd) out of all qualifying QBs (To qualify, a player must have at least 14 attempts per team's games played). While Allen’s passing stats improved, they still leave little to be desired.


73.20% of his throws in 2019 were defined as 'on target' (percentage of on-target throws per pass attempt, excluding spikes and throwaways), 12th worst in the NFL. 20.30% (88 throws) of his throws were defined as a 'bad', the 5th highest in the NFL.


However, it's not all bad or completely on Josh Allen. He had the highest % of passes dropped in the NFL, 7.20%. This was a total of 31 drops throughout the 2019

season, 3rd highest in the NFL. Next, there's the offensive line issue, that didn't give Josh Allen much help either. With a pocket time of only 2.3 seconds per play. This was the joint lowest in the NFL. Josh Allen also had 43 hits recorded against him, 12th highest in the NFL


But Josh Allen is more than just your typical QB, he’s a legitimate dual-threat QB. He is The Herdler.


Josh Allen has 17 total rushing TDs in his career. This is the same number as Saquon Barkley. His 510 rushing yards last season ranked him an impressive 38th OVERALL in rushing yards and 3rd in QB rushing yards.

So how does this all translate to fantasy?


He finished as QB6 last year, with 288.56 fantasy points. More than Kyler Murray, more than Carson Wentz. Allen had some very good weeks, Week 11 he scored 33.84 (11th highest weekly score from a QB in 2019). Week 10 against Cleveland he scored 25.44. But he also had some pretty poor games, Week 4 being the most disappointing scoring only 8.72 fantasy points.


Josh Allen's ADP is somewhat low in redraft leagues. His ADP is around QB11, the mid 9th round. This could be a league winner.


In Dynasty his ADP is around QB5/QB6 which is about right, given his production last year, major upside and the fact he is only 24.


Josh Allen is currently predicted to maintain his high level of fantasy production in 2020. Current projections have him at QB7, surpassing his 3,089 passing yards and 20 passing TDs.



Josh Allen does have inaccuracies with his throwing, there's no question about that. But from a fantasy point of view, I believe Allen has a pretty high floor. This is mainly due to his elite athletic ability and his rushing upside.


He had a career-high 20 passing TDs last year, coupled this with the fact he had rushing numbers that would've made him a top 40 RB. There's no reason why Allen can't break into the top 5, with minimal improvement.


The addition of Stefon Diggs is a massive bonus to Josh Allen. Diggs is an elite WR, who immediately upgrades a position that the Buffalo Bills were not too strong in last year. The addition of Diggs will hopefully help with the high drop % we saw from the Bills last year.


The Bills also added Daryl Williams to an improving Offensive Line. Hopefully, his addition along with another year of chemistry building will lead to Josh Allen having more time in the pocket, fewer pressures and hits. PFF currently rank the Buffalo Bills Offensive Line as 18th overall for the 2020 season.


Buffalo are trying to help their young QB make that further improvement, which in turn will help propel Josh Allen into becoming a top 5 fantasy QB.


Have confidence drafting The Herdler in both dynasty and redraft leagues. Even if his ceiling is somewhat limited, due to his inaccuracies, his floor is more than high enough.



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