Love It or List It: an AFC South Breakdown


The AFC South saw lots of change with key positions throughout the division and there is not truly a powerhouse team to dominate it. With these changes, and some of the familiar faces staying the same, this article will tell you who you should keep Loving and who you should List.

Love It - Part One: Buy

The first player you should start loving is arguably the rookie 1.01 in 2020, Jonathan Taylor. If you did not get him in your rookie draft or start-up draft, he will admittedly be expensive. Physically he is a monster at 5'10" and 226 pounds he will not be easy to bring down...if you can catch the guy because he ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. This guy has the college production and physical attributes to be a contributor on your fantasy team for years and he is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. He is worth the price of admission.

Mr. Taylor's teammate, Michael Pittman Junior, is the next player you should begin loving. Mr. Pittman is a shiny new toy that is going at the end of the first round/beginning of the second round of rookie drafts. This is a reasonable price to pay for someone who could easily be the WR1 on their team. Pittman averaged 12.6 yards per reception in his senior year at USC. His new QB, Phillip Rivers, peppered Keenan Allen like he was one of his 12 kids with an ADOT of 10.07. The other similarity they have is that Keenan Allen is 6'2" and Michael Pittman Jr. is 6'4" making them easy target to find for ole Phil. Pittman runs pretty clean routes for his size, and if he can get remotely close to what Allen does, Rivers will make him his 13th child based off of target share.


Love It - Part Two: Hold

Marlon Mack is the first player you should hold onto your love for, which probably sounds weird. The reason you should hold Marlon is that he will likely not be a Colt after this year. His value has probably dropped because everyone is super high on Jonathan Taylor for good reason. If Frank Reich isn't just blowing smoke up our skirts, then Mack will start the year. Wait for him to have a good game or two and then sell him, or wait until next year to see where he ends up because I do not think he will be in Indy. The concern with waiting until next year is he is not guaranteed a starting position.

D.J. Chark is our second player to keep on loving. He is the WR1 on his team, has the potential to be a WR1 in the league and his ADP has him going as the WR21. So you can draft him as a low-end WR2 and if he improves on what he did last year he can be a WR1. His youth and where you get him will cause his value to stay the same for at least a year or two.

The final player we need to keep loving is Deshaun Watson. Apparently Bill O'Brien hates his star QB because he traded away his top 5 WR, DeAndre Hopkins, and replaced him with concussion-prone Brandon Cooks and Randall Cobb. Deshaun has probably taken a hit in value and will continue to if he struggles this year because his weapons are all hurt. BUT, he's been a top 5 QB before and has the talent and work ethic to maintain that. This year will just be very difficult if Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and David Johnson miss any time.


List It: Sell

The last Colts player I will talk about is T.Y. Hilton and you need to list him. T.Y. is 30 now and has consecutive seasons not playing 16 games because of injury. In 2018 he played 14 and was WR14 in PPR, so that's not a big deal, but last year he only played 10 games. I think the time to sell him is now if you want to get good value for him. Historically we have seen WRs stop producing at WR2 levels around age 30/31. With him already starting to show signs of wear, you should sell him to a contending team that needs the depth.

So there is one team that I have not talked about yet and that is the Tennessee Titans. If the playoffs are any indication of how their offense is going to run, then that is exactly what they are going to do...RUN. So, you should SELL A.J. Brown. Now is the perfect time to do so too because his hype is HIIIIGH! He is being drafted as the WR9 overall. Last year Brown had 84 targets, 52 receptions, 1051 yards and 9 TDs on a 68% snap share. He had 8 games under 50 receiving yards and only 5 games with more than 5 targets. This means he was WILDLY efficient. Let's say he gets to 100 targets and maintains his catch percentage of 61%, putting him at 61 catches. That's 9 more catches than last year and his average yard per target was 12.51. 61 x 12.51 is 763 yards. To get what he had last year he would need 288 yards after the catch which is 4.72 yards after the catch per catch on every single catch(if he gets 61). I think it is going to be very hard for him to match his production especially with Tennessee wanting to ground and pound with King Derrick Henry.


Sleeper

Whether you are loving your house or listing it, you need a bed to sleep on, so we need a player that's being slept on. I'm giving you two in Ryquell Armstead and James Robinson. These players have absolutely no value for you this year unless Leonard Fournette gets hurt. BUT, next year could be very different because Fournette has made quite a few questionable comments toward the team and specific teammates. The organization does not seem to like him and I think it may be mutual from Fournette. I expect them to run Fournette into the ground this year and then let him walk, opening the door for one of these sleeper RBs to take over.


Reader's Choice

Our reader's choice for this article is Will Fuller of the Houston Texans. Fuller is going as WR45 and between 85 and 90 overall in ADP. That seems like a reasonable price for him especially if he is your WR3 or a Flex. However, the man cannot stay healthy and if you draft him you have a high risk of him not playing. So what are we doing with Mr. Fuller? Buy, Sell, or Hold?

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